905
FXUS61 KALY 180615
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
215 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
More tranquil, seasonable weather is expected after the front
passes through tonight as high pressure builds into the region
from the west. The next chances for showers and thunderstorms
comes early to middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will continue to cross the region overnight. Some
scattered rain showers continue across the region but will begin
to taper off toward daybreak. Clouds continue across much of
the region as well but some clearing is beginning to advance in
from the north and west in the wake of the front, but may take
until the daytime hours for clouds to partially break from the
Capital District and points south and east. Dewpoints are also
falling behind the front with upper 50s to lower 60s currently
across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Lows will fall back
into the 60s except the mid to upper 50s across the Adirondacks.
If enough clearing occurs, some localized patchy fog may
develop prior to daybreak.

A positively-tilted upper- level trough will approach the region
on Thursday. Enough wrap around moisture could bring an
isolated shower or two to portions of the Adirondacks;
otherwise, the rest of the area should have a dry day. Thursday
will feature partly to mostly sunny weather with lowering
humidity. Highs will be closer to climatological normals for
the second half of July with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s in
the valleys and upper 60s to lower 70s in the higher
elevations.

Any showers in the Adirondacks will end Thursday night as the
trough departs to the east. High pressure will quickly build
into the region overnight. As a result, mostly clear and dry
weather is expected Thursday night with lows falling back into
the 50s to around 60 with some pockets of upper 40s across the
Adirondacks. Some patchy fog may develop in some spots
overnight with fairly clear weather and light to calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The remainder of the short term period will remain tranquil and
comfortable with high pressure building in from the west. A
break from the heat will continue Friday with high temperatures
similar to Thursday at mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Adjacent high pressure will ensure mainly dry conditions through
Monday, though a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
or two will be possible north of Albany Sunday as a weak cold front
sinks south through the region as it`s parent low pressure system
pushes eastward across southeast Canada. High temperatures Saturday
through Monday look to range from the mid/upper 70s to low 80s above
1000 ft with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night
through Monday night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms then increase heading into
Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the south and a cold front
from the north. Differences in the guidance have make for sufficient
uncertainty at this time to maintain a maximum of slight to chance
PoPs through Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday look to be similar
to Saturday through Monday with upper 70s at higher elevations and
mid/upper 80s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mixed flying conditions expected through the
remainder of the overnight period as light showers associated with a
slow-moving cold front exit to the east. Showers may briefly reduce
cigs/vsbys to MVFR or high-end IFR at POU/PSF, but conditions should
improve toward morning, after 09-10Z Thu. Some patchy valley fog is
also possible as skies clear toward dawn, and have included TEMPO
for IFR fog/mist at GFL from 10-12Z Thu, with any vsby restrictions
quickly lifting following sunrise. VFR conditions will then continue
through the remainder of the period with few-sct diurnal cu and
unrestricted vsbys.

Calm to light and variable winds tonight will increase to 5-10 kt
out of the west to northwest after 12-15Z Thu. Gusts through the
afternoon may reach 20 kt at ALB/PSF given the favored direction
along the Mohawk Valley. Gusts will diminish by 00-03Z Fri with
northwest to north wind at 5 kt or less continuing into the
evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Picard/Webb