040
FXUS61 KALY 181405
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1005 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will bring mostly dry and seasonable
weather through Friday with comfortable humidity levels. Warmer
weather returns this weekend with a slight chance for a shower
or thunderstorm in spots both days. Chances for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms increases during the early to middle
part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...No significant changes with this update. Cold front
has cleared the entire area, with a cooler and less humid air
mass filtering in from the north/west. Just some mid/high level
clouds moving across areas south/east of Albany at this time.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0655]...A cold front has just about crossed
the region. A few isolated light showers/sprinkles are ongoing
along and just ahead of the front near Dutchess, Berkshire and
Litchfield counties and will depart the region soon. Dewpoints
continue to fall to more comfortable levels behind the front.
Clouds continue to slowly break up from northwest to southeast
and will continue to do so early this morning.

A positively-tilted upper- level trough will approach the region
from the west later today. This could bring an isolated shower
or two to portions of the Adirondacks; otherwise, the rest of
the area should have a dry day. Any lingering clouds this
morning will give way to a partly to mostly sunny afternoon
with lowering humidity. Highs will be closer to climatological
normals for the second half of July with mid-70s to mid-80s in
the valleys and upper 60s to lower 70s in the higher elevations.

Any showers in the Adirondacks will end this evening as the
trough departs to the east. High pressure will quickly build
into the region overnight. As a result, mostly clear and dry
weather is expected with lows falling back into the 50s to
around 60 with some pockets of upper 40s across the Adirondacks.
Some patchy fog may develop in some spots overnight with fairly
clear weather and light to calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be anchored over our region on Friday with
mostly sunny, dry and seasonable weather during the day and
mostly clear and comfortable weather Friday night. Highs will
once again be in the lower to mid-80s in the valleys and mid to
upper 70s in the higher elevations. Lows Friday night fall back
into the 50s to around 60.

High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and pleasant
weather on Saturday. The exception could be the approach of an
upper-level shortwave from the mid- Atlantic. While the track
and strength of this shortwave is uncertain at this time, a pop-
up shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for areas south
and east of Albany. Upon collaboration with surrounding offices,
have included slight chance PoPs in these areas with this update
and monitor trends. Saturday should be a warmer day with highs
in the mid to upper 80s in the valleys and upper 70s to lower
80s across the higher elevations.

By Saturday night, the upper shortwave should depart the region
with any showers or thunderstorms ending for southeastern
areas. In addition, a weak cold front will begin to drop
southward toward northern areas. At this time, the front may
remain just far enough to the north to keep any shower chances
to our north as well. Otherwise, expect another tranquil night
with lows falling back in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble model guidance and cluster analysis are in agreement
for upper level ridging to occur for this weekend for our
region, with chances of rain showers (20%) as a quick upper
level shortwave moves through Sunday afternoon across Northern
NY. Otherwise, dry conditions continue for the region through
Monday afternoon under high pressure. Our next best chances of
precipitation are Tuesday into Wednesday as our high pressure
system is likely to depart to our east and surface low pressure
system moves in from the southeast. There is uncertainty with
precipitation amounts and exact timing for this next system with
latest forecast ensemble models, but there is confidence for
unsettled weather conditions in the form of rain showers and
thunderstorms to return to the Capital Region for Tuesday and
Wednesday next week.

The latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 data has high
temperatures next week being in the mid to upper 80s with high
probabilities (greater than 75 percent) and for temperatures
reaching above 90 degrees has low probabilities (less than 25
percent). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has 40-50 percent
leaning above normal for temperatures towards the end of next
week, July 23rd to the 27th.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Largely VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals throughout the period. Sct-bkn mid-level clouds at
8-10 kft associated with a surface cold front will continue to
exit to the south and east. Otherwise, few-sct diurnal cu at 4-6
kft will develop through the morning and afternoon across the
region. Largely clear skies will persist through the overnight
period after 00Z Fri.

Winds will increase to 8-12 kt out of the west to northwest at
all terminals by 15-18Z Thu, with gusts of 15-20 kt possible at
ALB/GFL/PSF. Gusts will diminish by 21Z Thu-03Z Fri, with winds
steadily weakening to 5 kt or less after 06Z Fri.Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Picard