765
FXUS61 KALY 190511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
111 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the
region today with continued low humidity. Warmer weather returns
Saturday through Monday along with a few showers and
thunderstorms in spots each day. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely for the remainder of next week with
temperatures remaining near seasonable levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure, currently centered over the Ohio Valley, will
build over the region through Friday night. Any showers across
the Adirondacks have ended and mostly clear and dry weather is
now in store through Friday night along with comfortable
humidity. Lows tonight and Friday night will be mainly in the
50s with some upper 40s across the southern Adirondacks. Some
patchy fog will be possible each night as well. Highs on Friday
will return to near-seasonable levels (lower 80s across the
Hudson Valley and 70s elsewhere).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak disturbance may bring an isolated shower to the E.
Catskills on Saturday, otherwise dry conditions will persist
with weak high pressure in place. High temperatures look to be a
few degrees warmer than Fri, but still close to normal.
Humidity levels still should be comfortable, with dewpoints in
the 50s to lower 60s.

A large upper level trough will be progressing eastward across
Quebec and northern New England Sat night. While the trough
should remain north of our area, a trailing weak surface cold
front will start to shift south into the Adirondacks. With
limited moisture available, we are just expecting isolated
showers in this area with dry conditions elsewhere. Lows will be
milder than the previous few nights, but still near normal
ranging from mid 50s to mid 60s.

The weak front is expected to stall and become diffuse on
Sunday. So just isolated showers or general thunderstorms are
possible for the W. Adirondacks. Highs look to be slightly
warmer than Sat, with temperatures in the Hudson Valley reaching
the upper 80s. Dewpoints will be higher (lower/mid 60s) than
prior days, but will only result in peak heat index values
around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance depicting a confluent SW flow aloft across the area on
Mon, which should continue to result in mainly dry conditions.
With gradually increasing moisture, an isolated diurnally driven
shower or T-storm cannot be ruled out from around I-90 south.
Temperatures continue to run above normal, but the warmest areas
should be just around 90F.

The flow starts to become more amplified by Tuesday, with PWAT
anomalies forecast to increase to above normal levels south of
Albany. Combined with a northward advancing front, will mention
40- 60% chance of showers/T-storms during the afternoon/evening,
with the greatest probs south of Albany.

There is a 50-60% probability of showers/T-storms on Wed, as
deep layer moisture continues to increase(widespread PWAT
anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) along with a potential front
positioned across the area. Similar conditions are expected on
Thu, as the synoptic pattern looks to remain rather stagnant.

High temperatures are expected to be near normal, with low
temperatures above normal through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail for the
upcoming TAF period with high pressure slowly building across
the area. Patchy fog will be possible later this morning mainly
at KPSF/KGFL, but confidence is low due to the dry air mass in
place so did not advertise impacts with this TAF.

Winds will remain light & variable through the morning, but will
increase to around 5-10 kts out of the northwest by midday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speck