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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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684 FXUS61 KALY 191651 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1251 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the region today with continued low humidity. Warmer weather returns Saturday through Monday along with a few showers and thunderstorms in spots each day. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely for the remainder of next week with temperatures remaining near seasonable levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...Mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels with slightly below normal temperatures this afternoon. A tranquil mid summer day in progress, with just minor adjustments to the forecast with this update. .PREV DISCUSSION[0632]...No significant changes with this update. Satellite imagery shows just a few fair weather cumulus clouds developing mainly over higher terrain areas, with mostly sunny skies prevailing. Temperatures have warmed into the 60s/70s. High pressure will build over the region through tonight bringing mostly clear and dry weather with comfortable humidity levels. Any patchy fog that developed early this morning will burn off within the next 1-2 hours. Temperatures are starting out in the 50s in most areas with some upper 40s across the higher elevations. Highs will reach near- seasonable levels this afternoon (lower 80s across the Hudson Valley and 70s elsewhere) with lows tonight generally falling back into the 50s. Some patchy fog may develop tonight, especially in the favored sheltered areas and near bodies of water. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A weak upper-level shortwave will track northeastward across the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. This could bring a shower or thunderstorm to areas south and east of Albany. Elsewhere, Saturday is shaping up to be another dry and seasonable day across the region with highs a few degrees higher than on Friday (lower to mid-80s in the valleys and mid to upper 70s in the higher elevations). Any showers or thunderstorms will fizzle out Saturday evening as the disturbance departs the area. The remainder of the weekend will feature a weak cold front dropping southward from Canada, gradually washing out or becoming more diffuse by Sunday night. While forcing is rather weak and remains to our north, an isolated shower or rumble of thunder will be possible along and just ahead of the front, especially for areas north of Interstate 90. Highs Sunday will reach the 80s to around 90 in the valleys with 70s to around 80 in the higher elevations. Dewpoints will rise slightly on Sunday into the upper 50s to mid-60s making it feel a bit more humid than recent days. Lows both Saturday and Sunday night will fall into the mid-50s to mid-60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: 1) Active weather and warmer temperatures return next week Discussion: Monday will start off dry as zonal flow aloft and low-level ridging/high pressure will be exiting the area to the east. Southwest flow will follow as a closed low across Iowa merges with a trough drifting south across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec. This will bring increasing moisture and a northward advancing front across the region by Tuesday, resulting in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area. This front is progged to stall across the region mid-week, which will keep precipitation chances in the forecast for the remainder of the period. Similar to the previous forecast, NBM continues to advertise medium to high probabilities (40-70%) of precipitation Tuesday through Thursday as there is good agreement amongst deterministic and ensemble guidance. Temperatures look to average near normal for highs, with lows near to above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period with high pressure and a dry air mass in place. There is a very low probability of fog development at KGFL/KPSF, but too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, high level cirrus clouds will increase late tonight into Saturday morning. There is a slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA near KPOU Sat afternoon, but starting after 18z. Winds will be variable less than 10 kt through today, then less than 5 kt tonight. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...JPV