348
FXUS61 KALY 071746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in across the region will make
for dry conditions today. While humidity levels will be slightly
better than yesterday, high temperatures will remain very warm.
Tranquility continues into the beginning of the week, but as will
above normal temperatures and the return to elevated humidity.
Shower and thunderstorm potential then increases mid week as a
frontal system approaches the region from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure controlling the weather this afternoon with lots
of sun and light winds. Just minor adjustments to temperatures
and sky cover through this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquility persists into the overnight period tonight with high
pressure remaining dominant at the surface and ridging
increasing slightly aloft. A continuation to mainly clear skies
will aid in temperatures radiating down to the upper 50s above
1500 ft and 60s elsewhere. Some patchy fog could develop again
in sheltered areas with low-level humidity remaining elevated.

Dry conditions will remain steady on Monday, though humidity
will once again be on the increase. At this time, with highs
progged to reach the upper 70s/low 80s above 1500 ft, mid/upper
80s and pockets of low 90s elsewhere, and dewpoints in the upper
50s to 60s, maximum apparent temperatures look to generally
remain below the 95 degree F threshold. However, we will
continue to monitor this element of the forecast closely as some
county zones are close to reaching this criteria. Should
confidence increase today, a Heat Advisory may be necessary
especially for portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley. Low
temperatures Monday will then fall to the 60s with near 70 in
isolated pockets of the lower Mid-Hudson Valley.

Tuesday`s forecast has presented itself to be a somewhat
challenging one as guidance has seemed to slow the progression
of an anticipated frontal system coming from the west. This is
likely due, at least in part, to the presence of and uncertainty
in the track of the remnants of TC Beryl. That said, while
Tuesday has, in previous days, looked to have afternoon showers
and possible thunderstorms, it now looks as though most areas
could remain dry Tuesday. There are some hints that a stationary
boundary draped along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Long
Island Coasts just to our south and east could be the driver of
some light showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two mainly for
areas south of I-90. Certainly this is possible with modest
instability and shear being indicated on mid-range sources of
guidance. Therefore, kept scattered change PoPs throughout the
day Tuesday before increasing to chance PoPs Tuesday night when
there begins to be a little bit better signal for some greater
coverage of showers and possible embedded rumbles of thunder.
High temperatures Tuesday will be very similar to Monday,
though dewpoints increasing to the mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s
will drive maximum apparent temperatures into the low to mid and
possibly upper 90s. Heat Advisories are certainly possible and
will be issued should trends continue to indicate the likelihood
of more coverage of 95 degrees or greater. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will span the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with former TC Beryl as a post-tropical
system moving northeast from the lower/central MS River Valley
towards the Midwest. The warm front to the system may be near the NY-
PA border.  The low and mid level warm advection increases for
periods of showers with embedded thunderstorms. Sfc dewpoints rise
into the 60s and lower 70s.  The latest PWATS on the NAEFS/GEFS
increase to 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal.  Some locally heavy rainfall
is possible and WPC highlights this risk Wed-Wed night.  PoPs are in
the likely and high chance range and confidence/probabilities are
increasing for widespread 1" or greater rainfall during this 24-hr
time frame.   In the humid air mass, expect max temps to be in the
70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain and lower to mid 80s in the
valleys (a few upper 80s in the mid Hudson Valley).  In the muggy
air mass...low temps will only fall off into the 60s to lower 70s.
The warm front will drift north of the region and become stationary
near the St Lawrence River Valley.

Thursday into Thursday night...The low pressure system formerly
Beryl slowly moves east/northeast towards extreme southeast Ontario
and northern NY.  Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible with enhanced hourly rainfall rates in the tropical
environment with elevated dewpoints and PWATS. Soils may become
saturated in spots so we will have to monitor for any
hydrological impacts. The flash flood threat we will briefly
mention in the HWO WED-THU. Temps will be near seasonal normals
for highs with 70s to lower 80s. The cold front to the system
slides eastward Thu night with scattered showers diminishing.
Lows fall into the 60s with some upper 50s over the southern
Dacks.

Late in the week into the weekend...the cold front stalls near
extreme eastern NY and New England.  The greatest probabilities for
scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
from the Capital Region south and east on Friday. It really depends
if a wave forms and moves along the boundary for the pcpn coverage
to more expansive.  The medium range guidance and ensembles hint at
the boundary being stationary near the New England Coast with
additional scattered showers/t-storms to start the weekend. It will
be humid as temps trend from seasonal readings on Friday to slightly
above to start the weekend.  Overall, the temps are not to atypical
for mid July.   The latest CPC Day 8 to 14 outlook from Jul 14 to 20
continues to forecast above normal temps with slightly above normal
pcpn for eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through at least 06 UTC/08 with just
some diurnally driven cumulus clouds around 5-6kft and SCT to
BKN cirrus. Clouds clear this evening supporting radiational
cooling conditions with some patchy and mist possible for all
TAF sites but the highest conditions for IFR conditions is at
KGFL and KPSF. Any fog or mist quickly ends by 12-13 UTC with
VFR conditions expected the remainder of the TAF period.

Variable winds this afternoon with wind speeds near 5-9kts and
occasional gusts to 15kts. Then, winds turn light and variable
by 00 - 02 UTC and remain light under 5kts through the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Speciale