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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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040 FXUS61 KALY 141845 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 245 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity levels will increase Monday through Wednesday with hot temperatures continuing, along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler and much less humid conditions by late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Lots of sun across the region and a few clouds may form this afternoon but sun and light winds will help temperatures to reach current forecasted levels. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Mostly sunny skies are expected today, with hot temperatures once again. However, with lower PWAT`s in place, dewpoints will likely remain and/or fall back into the lower/mid 60s or even lower this afternoon. This will allow heat indices to remain slightly below the actual temperatures this afternoon, with heat indices generally reaching the lower 90s in valley areas, perhaps briefly approaching 95 within portions of the mid Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Warm and becoming slightly more humid for tonight, with chances of showers/thunderstorms late tonight across portions of the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the leading edge of more humid air approaches from the west. Lows mainly in the 60s, though a few upper 50s are possible across the SW Adirondacks. Hot and more humid for Monday, although dewpoints should generally remain in the 60s. Actual temperatures should reach 90-95 within most valley areas, which should lead to heat indices reaching the mid/upper 90s in these areas. However, there is a possibility that some scattered showers/thunderstorms, and/or debris clouds from upstream convection limits temperatures somewhat. Due to this uncertainty, have not issued heat advisories just yet, however should confidence increase further, then heat advisories would be issued later today for at lease some areas below 1000 feet in elevation. Increasing instability (MU CAPES >1000 J/kg) and possible forcing from an upstream shortwave/MCV may bring scattered showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts given potentially steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE around/over 1000 J/kg. SPC has placed western areas (western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County/eastern Catskills) within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Some lingering scattered showers/thunderstorms Monday night possible, otherwise warm and humid with lows in the mid 60s to lower/mid 70s. Hot and humid conditions continue Tuesday, with some potential for this being hotter than Monday, along with slightly higher dewpoints. Significant instability (MU CAPES 1500-2500+ J/kg) and additional shortwave energy approaching from the west could allow for clusters of strong thunderstorms to develop. SPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 90s within most valley areas and 80s across higher elevations. As dewpoints reach the upper 60s to lower 70s within valley areas, heat indices should reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s, and heat indices will likely be needed for many elevations below 1000 feet. Lingering showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday evening should decrease in coverage overnight, however it will remain warm and humid with patchy fog developing. Lows mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A sharp upper level shortwave will be located over the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will be lifting to the northeast across southern Canada by Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will be moving across the region. There are some differences in the model guidance regarding the exact timing, but the front looks to cross the area at some point between late Wednesday and early Thursday. Ahead of the front, there should be a fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Depending on if the timing lines up with peak heating on Wednesday, there will be the potential for strong storms and heavy downpours with this activity. In addition, it will be continued warm and muggy ahead of the front on Wednesday and southern areas could need another Heat Advisory once again. Highs should be in the upper 80s to low 90s in valley areas with muggy dewpoints near 70. Once the front clears through the area, drier, cooler and less humid air will move into the region for the late week. Will continue to mention a chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday in case the frontal timing is slower, but will keep the forecast dry for Thursday night into the weekend, as high pressure builds into the area. Daytime temps will only be in the lower to middle 80s for valley areas on Thursday and Friday, with perhaps mid to upper 80s returning by Saturday. Dewpoints will be lowering down into the 50s by Friday before recovering back into the 60s by Saturday. Overnight lows look more comfortable compared to recent days with mainly 50s to low 60s as well. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals with visible satellite showing mainly clear skies outside of some patchy, fair weather cumulus. Conditions are anticipated to remain steady throughout the 18z TAF period despite some increasing mid-level cloud coverage possible overnight tonight with the nearing of a weak, upper-level disturbance. A stray shower or two could develop at KGFL and/or KALB as a result, but confidence was not high enough in this element of the forecast to include showers in the TAFs at this time. Should a shower move into terminal bounds overnight tonight, it should be light and brief enough to not disrupt VFR conditions. Winds throughout the 18z cycle will be light and variable at speeds ranging from 2-5 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001- 013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...KL/NAS SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Gant