036
FXUS61 KAKQ 140801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will wash out across the area this
morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are
possible today, followed by a mainly dry and hot pattern Monday
through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period returns late
Wednesday through Saturday, as a cold front stalls across the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Humid tonight with locally dense fog along the Atlantic coast
  of Maryland.

A very weak boundary remains over the region, with a few
isolated showers continuing to develop across the piedmont, with
another area exiting the NC coast. Marine fog continues across
the lower MD and VA ern shore and have an SPS for this for
widespread VSBYs of 1/2 to 1SM. There is also some patchy
ground fog observed W of the Bay over interior sections of VA
and NE NC, but this ground fog is not widespread and will have
little to no impacts before diminishing shortly after sunrise.
It remains warm and humid with temperatures primarily in the
low-mid 70s.

The boundary will weaken/wash out later this morning. The heat
begins to build today, with dew pts in the mid to upper 70s
across the SE, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s W of I-95 this
aftn. Have issued a Heat Advisory for interior NE NC for heat
indices to at or just above 105F. Elsewhere, heat indices will
avg 1001-04F this aftn. The flow aloft is zonal/westerly but
with some weak shortwave energy forecast to move through later
today. Will maintain 20-30% PoPs (highest interior NE NC), for
some widely scattered aftn storms. An isolated strong storm
with gusty winds is possible if they can organize to some
extent given modest flow of 20-25kt in the 700-500mb layer. Any
storms will dissipate after sunset, then warm and humid with
lows mainly 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Hot Mon-Tue with high humidity closer to the coast and
  slightly lower humidity well inland (Tue probably the hottest
  day). At least Heat Advisories likely, with Excessive Heat
  Warnings possible E of I-95.

- Remaining hot Wednesday and humid area-wide but with a higher
  coverage of storms by afternoon (heat headlines possible but
  more uncertain)


The heat really starts to ramp up again for Mon and Tue, as a
broad upper ridge expands east from the desert SW to the SE
CONUS. With the consensus being for 850mb temperatures rising to
20-22C Mon aftn, highs should easily climb into the mid 90s at
the coast, with upper 90s inland. The models all do show some
degree of dew pts dropping into the upper 60s/near 70F in the
aftn across inland areas where the highest temps are expected.
Closer to the coast, dew pts likely stay in the lower to mid 70s
through the aftn, leading to peak heat indices 105-109 east of
I-95, with 100-104F in the Piedmont. At least a Heat Advisory is
likely for the east and possible for the west. Other than a
stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into the eastern
Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal NE NC, will
keep all areas dry on Mon. Warm/muggy Mon night with lows
ranging through the 70s. Likely a degree or two hotter on Tue
across the region with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. At
least a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the entire area,
with an Excessive Heat Warning possible in some locations.
Sunny or mostly sunny and very hot on Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front moves in from the NW late Wed/Wed night, and is
  expected to stall near the region through Saturday.

High chc to likely PoPs Wed night, then likely PoPs all areas
on Thu. Then, later Thu night through Sat, higher Pops will
shift to the SSE, as the frontal boundary pushes farther S. It
will probably stay humid Thu-Sat, but high temps will be much
cooler, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s
Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the period except at SBY,
where ground fog and low CIGs continue to bring IFR-LIFR
conditions. Any fog/stratus at SBY should burn off by 12-14z.
SCT cumulus should develop this aftn. There is a slight chc
(PoPs ~20%) of showers/tstms this aftn-evening at all of the
terminals, but not enough confidence to include any mention in
the TAFs.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected Monday through Wednesday AM.
Shower/tstm chances increase by late Wed/Thu with periodic
flight restrictions expected ahead of an approaching cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Generally quiet marine conditions through Tuesday with winds
turning southerly and gradually increasing.

- South winds gusting to 20 kt are possible Wed/Thu ahead of a cold
front.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk today for the northern beaches

With the surface front/trough near the waters this morning, expect
light winds (less than 10 kt) through the day. The winds will
initially be northwesterly, then gradually turn NE and then SE.
These light onshore winds may allow the dense fog to continue into
the morning, although current web cams in Ocean City suggest more
lower clouds vs. fog. As such, will leave the dense fog advisory in
place with a 12z expiration for now, however it is possible that it
will need to be extended later on this morning.

Winds will transitioning from easterly to southerly overnight
tonight into Monday as the lee side trough develops. As we move into
early next week expect the winds over the coastal waters to
gradually increase from 10 to 15 kt on Monday as high as 15 to 20 kt
by Wednesday due to the tightening pressure gradient between the
approaching cold front over the Ohio Valley, and the Bermuda High to
the SE of the area. Winds will stay 10 to 15 kt in the Chesapeake
Bay and Rivers Monday into Tuesday before increasing to 15 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt on Wednesday.

The cold front ends up stalling out over the area on Thursday, but
gets a secondary push southward by Friday. It is still uncertain if
the front will clear the southern waters, however the consensus is
that it will clear the northern waters allowing the winds to turn
NW. Regardless of where the front ends up, expect diminishing winds
starting Thursday night as the gradient relaxes across the area.

Southeast swell of 3 to 4 ft continue to impact the coastal waters
this morning, but expect the swell to diminish through the day.
Meanwhile, the light winds should keep waves and bay/rivers at a
foot or less. Southerly winds developing by Monday and slowly
increasing through Wed will allow wind waves to gradually build with
seas of 2 to 3 feet in the bay by Wednesday and 3 to 4 feet over the
ocean.

Due to the southeast swell at 3 to 4 feet, will continue with the
moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches today. Waves drop
to 2 to 3 feet for Monday and Tuesday so will go with low rip risk
for early in the work week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs and record high mins may be challenged Mon-Wed.



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ013>015-030>032.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...MRD/CWM
CLIMATE...AKQ