222
FXUS61 KAKQ 130152
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
952 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain over eastern Virginia
through Saturday morning. Ample moisture in the vicinity of the
front will allow for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
during this time. The front gradually washes out over the
region on Saturday, with dry and hot conditions returning Sunday
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 910 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers will continue through the night, although the threat
  for flooding rain is considerably less than it was earlier
  today.

The latest surface analysis still shows weak low pressure near
the SC/GA coast, with a stationary boundary stretching NNE
through eastern VA and up to NJ/New England. Showers continue
across the area this evening with impressive PWs on the order of
~2.4" along/near that boundary, but rainfall rates have
diminished considerably with the loss of instability (as
several rounds of convection has already moved across the area).
Rainfall totals have been impressive in spots, with areal avg
amounts of 1-3", and localized totals of 6-7". Showers will
continue through the night, with the highest PoPs along and east
of I-95 as the stationary front and higher moistures align
along the coast. Will maintain chc PoPs across the Piedmont
(30-50%). 0.25-0.50" QPF amounts expected overnight on average,
but obviously with locally higher amounts likely. Have trimmed
the western tier of counties from the Flood Watch, which still
runs through midnight for areas along and east of I-95 (except
for much of the ern shore). Mostly cloudy areawide with lows in
the 70-75F range in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Remaining unsettled Saturday, but gradually improving by
  Saturday night.

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday.

The stationary front will take through at least Saturday
afternoon to move to the coast. Will continue with
likely PoPs through Saturday for areas generally along/east of
I-95, and chc PoPs Piedmont. Locally heavy rain and even some
isolated instances of flash flooding will again be possible
(MRGL ERO for eastern VA). 0.25-0.50" QPF amounts expected on
average during Saturday, but obviously locally higher amounts
will be possible. High temps 85-90. Decreasing PoPs Saturday
night. Will maintain some chc PoPs along the immediate coast
(30-40%). Lows generally 70-75.

By Sunday, the front stalls out just offshore. Will need to
keep chance PoPs in on Sunday for SE VA/NE NC but rainfall
amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sunday will be
the returning heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area
leading to heat index values above 100F.

The heat really starts to ramp up again on Monday. High
temperatures 95-99 with heat index values of 105-109 east and
100-104 Piedmont (where dew pts will be lower due to mixing).
Other than a stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into
the eastern Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal
NE NC, will keep all areas dry on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with heat
  index values of at least 105F likely for most of the area
  (with localized 110F+ possible over the E/SE).

The models remain in decent agreement that the early to middle
part of next week will see a return of very hot and humid
conditions. Some of the models suggest somewhat drier air with
ample mixing of the dew pts into the upper 60s along and W of
the I-95 corridor and in theory this makes sense given the
origin of the upper ridge is more continental. However, given
the midsummer timeframe and the expected heavy rain into
Saturday, this may be overdone. Have split the difference for
now, going close to NBM high temperatures overall (highs into
the mid to upper 90s, with Tuesday probably the hottest day with
a few areas perhaps flirting with 100F). Went close to NBM dew
pts across the SE, but a few degrees drier over inland areas.
This still yields heat indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Tue-
Wed, with some localized 110F+ possible in the SE. The upper
ridge eventually breaks down as strong upper trough translates
south front north central Canada and to eastern Canada late in
the week. Will have chc PoPs starting Wed afternoon, and likely
PoPs all areas on Thursday with a cold front into the local
area. For now, highs Thursday are forecast in the lower 90s S/SE
with mid/upper 80s NW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...

Light to moderate rain continues across the terminals, with a
few embedded heavy downpours (but rainfall intensity has
weakened considerably in the past few hours). CIGs are MVFR to
VFR at this hour. Showers will persist through the night, but
these will mainly be light to moderate, though a few pockets of
heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out. VSBYs could briefly drop to
IFR in the heaviest downpours. CIGs will be MVFR to VFR near the
coast through the period, although a period of IFR CIGs is
possible at RIC from 04-14z before improving to MVFR. Scattered
showers continue through the morning with varying VSBYs, and
another round of heavier showers (with a few tstms) is possible
from 16-23z (highest PoPs near the coast). Still too early to
include thunder in the TAFs.

Outlook: Dry Saturday night with patchy fog possible late
(mainly at RIC/SBY though confidence is low). Conditions improve
Sunday, and will be mainly VFR Monday/Tuesday with dry wx.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 950 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for the ocean zones through early
  Saturday for seas of 4-6ft. Periods of moderate to heavy
  rainfall will continue tonight.

-Improving marine conditions expected Saturday and remaining
 benign through the early week period.

-Moderate rip current risk on Saturday.

A stalled front and area of low pressure will continue to bring
the chance for showers and storms to the waters tonight. Latest
guidance and buoy observations do not support keeping SCA
headlines in the Ches Bay or Currituck Sound so those
advisories have been cancelled. Offshore, seas continue to
linger around 5 ft so will keep SCA flags in effect until 7AM
but expect these areas may fall below thresholds before their
end time as well. Will let the overnight shift fine-tune the end
times based on the latest data.

Conditions are expected to improve during the day on Saturday
with seas becoming 3-4ft and waves in the Bay of 1-2ft. Winds
will remain on the lighter side out of the south/southwest
through the weekend. There will continue to be a daily
thunderstorm threat into early next week. The heat and humidity
will return next week.

Will maintain the moderate rip current risk for Saturday at all
beaches given seas will be diminishing through the day.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ064-075>090-092-
     093-095>098-100-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ERI/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM/LKB/MRD
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...AM