605
FXUS61 KAKQ 070754
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
354 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Very warm and
humid conditions continue through the week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered afternoon storms are likely across NE NC and are possible
  across SE VA and the Eastern Shore.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible in NE NC.

Temps as of 340 AM ranged from the lower 70s NW to the upper 70s to
around 80F SE under mostly cloudy skies. A few light showers were
noted across S central VA and NE NC with a few thunderstorms moving
into the Ches Bay from Hampton. Morning lows a degree or two cooler.

Aloft, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast beneath an
upper level ridge today with an upper level trough across the N
central CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front gradually moves SE through
much of the area this morning before stalling and washing out
through the afternoon. Widespread cloud cover lingers through the
day as moisture gets pulled NE between the trough to the NW and
ridge to the SE. Given the cloud cover, temps will be "cooler" today
with highs in the low-mid 90s. Afternoon dew points are expected to
range from the mid 60s NW (behind the cold front) to the mid-upper
70s SE. As such, heat indices will range from the mid 90s W to 100-
103F E. Expect scattered storms to develop ahead of the cold front
across SE VA/NE NC (60-70% PoPs) as well as the Eastern Shore (40-
50% PoPs) off the sea breeze. With PWATs of 2-2.2" remaining across
SE VA/NE NC, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms.
The best chance for heavy rain (and localized flash flooding) is
across NE NC where HREF probs are 70-90% for 1" in 1 hour and 50%
for 3" in 3 hours. 1 and 3 hour FFG is 2.5-3" and 3-4" respectively
across these areas. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
across NE NC to account for this potential. A few storms may be
strong (potentially severe) as well with localized damaging winds
due to wet microbursts possible. Showers and storms taper off this
evening with lows in the lower 70s W to mid 70s E tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday through Tuesday,
  mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 95-105F each day.

A few showers are possible during the morning (mainly S/SE).
Sunday will feature more clouds as the front very slowly tries
to make its way southward before stalling across far S/SE VA
Sunday afternoon. The front will serve as a focal point for
scattered aftn/evening tstms. The highest PoPs (40-60%) are in
SE VA/NE NC, and the latest CAMs are also hinting at scattered
showers/tstms w/ the seabreeze over the eastern shore (PoPs to
20-40%). No more than isolated convection is expected elsewhere.
Convection should quickly diminish after 9-10 PM...isolated
40-50 mph gusts are possible in the strongest storms but the
main threat with any storms will be heavy rainfall. Still hot
and humid on Sun (especially across E/SE VA and NE NC where heat
indices may approach 105F due to dew pts in the mid- upper 70s
although temps won`t get much above 90F due to increased cloud
cover). It will actually be hotter (lower-mid 90s) across
central/NW portions of the FA where there will be a bit more
sunshine, but dew pts look to mix out more in the upper 60s to
around 70F with drier air filtering in from the NW, so heat
indices will only top out in the upper 90s to around 100F.


The front washes out by Monday as the low-level flow becomes SSE
area-wide. Highs mainly in the upper 80s-lower 90s (heat indices
generally 100-105F) with isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms
(best chance in the Piedmont with lower chances closer to the
coast). Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a bit on Tue as
a trough picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region.
This will result in slight height rises over the FA with low-level
southerly flow. A few aftn/evening tstms are possible, with the
highest coverage along/west of I-95 with lesser coverage near the
coast (which will be closer in proximity to the offshore ridge).
Highs Tue in the lower-mid 90s inland with upper 80s-lower 90s near
the coast. Heat indices will top out in the 100-105F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and
  evening showers and storms.

Daily chances for showers/tstms (highest during the aftn/evening)
will continue through the remainder of the week as we will be under
weak S-SW flow aloft in between broader troughing to our NW and
ridging offshore. Several shortwaves will cross the area during
the latter part of next week into next weekend. With deep
moisture likely remaining in place along with weak flow aloft,
showers/tstms will be the result. PWs may remain aoa 2.0"
through much of mid-late next week...especially near the coast.
While there likely won`t be as much of a severe threat, locally
heavy rainfall is likely in spots. Wednesday will be the
hottest day of the period with highs in the lower-mid 90s (and
heat indices of 100-105F), with highs mainly in the 85-90F range
from Thu-Sat with more cloud cover/higher precip chances. Lows
mainly between 70-75F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Sunday...

Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue overnight and into Sun
with a mixture of cirrus and CU. A few isolated light showers
will continue to be possible across mainly SE VA/NE NC
overnight. CU develop in the afternoon with scattered showers
and storms developing across SE VA/NE NC as well as the Eastern
Shore. Confidence in coverage and exact timing is too low to go
with more than VCTS for now. IFR VIS will be possible in any
showers/storms. Showers and storms taper off in the evening
with some MVFR CIGs possible late. Additionally, some marine fog
may move onshore the Eastern Shore tonight with IFR/MVFR VIS.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening
timeframe).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Generally benign, typical summertime conditions are expected
through midweek.

- There is a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches today.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just west of the
waters with winds out of the S to SW ranging from 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay
are running around 1 to 2 feet.

The cold front will stall/dissipate over or near the local waters on
today. Predominately sub-SCA winds are expected today through
Wednesday, generally running around 5 to 15 knots out of the S or
SE. Sub-SCA conditions look to continue through much of the mid to
late week period.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures were tied at ORF/SBY and set
at ECG yesterday, 7/6. See below for actual min temps.

- RIC: 76 (Record 80/2012)
- ORF: 80 (Record 80/1999)
- SBY: 77 (Record 77/2012)
- ECG: 79 (Record 78/1999)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...