447
FXUS61 KAKQ 081456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1056 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday through Friday. Very
warm and humid conditions continue through much of the week as well.
The highest heat indices are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid today with afternoon heat indices of 98-103.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon and
  evening.

Late this morning, an upper level ridge lingers over the
Southeast CONUS with an upper level low underneath the ridge.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough lingers across the Midwest.
Sfc high pressure remains anchored well offshore while TC Beryl
continues to track N through Texas. Isolated showers are
tracking through srn VA/NE NC. Humidity increases today with dew
points rising into the mid 70s across much of the area. This
combined with temps rising into the low to locally mid 90s will
allow for heat indices to top out around or just above 100F in
most areas. While a few localized areas may reach heat indices
around 105F this afternoon, 105F heat indices don`t look to be
widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. While yesterday`s
front has washed out, an uncapped environment will allow
scattered showers/storms increase in coverage this afternoon
across central portions of the FA (40-50% PoPs). Given the very
humid (PWATs ~2.00") airmass in place and slow storm motions,
locally heavy rainfall is possible (the threat for severe wx is
quite low). Diurnal weakening quickly occurs this evening with
dry wx expected overnight. Humid with forecast lows in the mid
70s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread heat indices
of 105-109F.

- Scattered showers and storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday.

Heat and humidity lingers Tue and Wed with highs in the mid-upper
90s Tue and low-mid 90s Wed. Given dew points in the mid-upper 70s
both days, heat indices rise to 105-109F Tue and 103-108F Wed. Heat
Advisories are likely across much of the area both days. Tue looks
to be the hotter day with some potential for heat indices
approaching 110F in spots.

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl get lifted up by an upper level
trough over the upper Midwest Tue-Wed. While the remnants of
Beryl remain NW of the local area, the trailing cold front from
the system moves towards the local area Wed, stalling E of the
Appalachians on Wed night. A few isolated to scattered
showers/storms are possible across central portions of the FA on
Tue (25-30% PoPs) with higher PoPs across the W Piedmont on Wed
(35-50% PoPs). Convection may linger into central portions of
the FA Wed night as the cold front stalls.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Friday with a warming trend into early next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.

- The best chance for widespread rain is Thursday into Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW
flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to
the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into
Canada by Thu with direct rainfall from the system remaining to the
NW of the local area. However, the trailing cold front from the
system stalls E of the Appalachians Thu into Fri while a secondary
surface low forms across the Carolinas. The combination of the
surface low to the S and the stationary front will allow for PWATs
to rise to ~2.5" Thu, remaining >2.0" through Fri night. As a
result, scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected Thu
afternoon (50-60% PoPs) through much of Fri/Fri evening (70% PoPs)
before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the
shortwave exits the area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with
the GEFS/EPS showing the potential for widespread 1-2" of rain.
Given the very moist environment, localized totals in excess of 3-4"
appears probable. Scattered diurnal convection is possible Sat and
Sun with the best chance on Sat (50-55% PoPs).

Highs in the lower 90s Thu, lower 80s W to upper 80s E Fri, upper
80s to lower 90s Sat, lower 90s Sun, and mid 90s Mon. Some model
guidance suggests highs Fri may not make it out of the upper 70s W
given the widespread convection. Lows in the 70s through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...

Patchy fog across S central VA, NE NC, and the MD Eastern Shore
should lift over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies linger today. Isolated to scattered showers
are possible this morning with greater coverage of scattered
showers and storms in the afternoon. IFR VIS is possible with
any showers/storms. However, confidence in any shower or storm
hitting a terminal is too low to go with more than VCTS in the
tafs. Showers/storms taper off by the evening with a return of
VFR conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening
timeframe). The greatest chance for reduces VIS/CIGs is Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 7 AM this morning for
ocean zones from Fenwick to Parramore Island for VSBYs less than 1
NM.

- Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- SCA conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
due to increasing southerly winds.

Early this morning, a weak front is located over the local waters
with winds out of the SW ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are
running around 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running
around 1 foot.

A weak front will remain near the waters through tomorrow as it
gradually dissipates over the area. Winds will generally remain out
of the S to SSE and continue to run around 10 knots. Brief increases
in wind speeds to around 10 to 15 knots will be possible both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon due to afternoon sea breezes. Seas
will average 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet through
this timeframe.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening
ahead of another approaching cold front from the northwest. Local
wind probs are maximized Wednesday evening through Wednesday night,
showing a decent potential for gusts of 20 to 25 knots over the
ocean and Chesapeake Bay. In addition, seas will increase to 4 to 5
feet and waves in the bay increase to 2 to 3 feet Wednesday night.
SCAs will likely be needed for at least the ocean and bay starting
Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds continue to gust around 20 to
25 knots through the day Thursday, before gradually diminishing
Thursday night. Sub-SCA conditions then likely return late this week
into this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB