942
FXUS61 KAKQ 190217
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1017 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage across
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina through the late
evening as a frontal boundary stalls nearby. This front lifts
back north late Friday, bringing unsettled conditions back to
most of the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- The Flood Watch has been cancelled for southside Hampton Roads
  & NE NC as the threat for heavy rain has ended.

- A Flood Warning remains in effect from the Elizabeth City area
  into southern Camden and central Currituck counties for
  lingering flooding from earlier heavy rain.

Coverage of showers and tstms as substantially diminished late
this evening. This activity was in advance of a cold front that
will push south of the local area overnight into Friday while
becoming stationary. Will maintain 20-30% PoPs over coastal NE
NC overnight and 20% or less elsewhere. Otherwise, expected
drier conditions to filter in from the N overnight. Partial
clearing and some drier air/lower dew pts will work into our NW
counties late, lows tonight drop into the mid 60s NW, with low-
mid 70s SE (where its stays humid with more clouds).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers/storms south on Fri, but dry north.

-Showers/storm chances increase Saturday as the front lifts back
 north.

Drying out for the northern half of the area Friday, with only
scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon (over the
south). Partly sunny N and mostly cloudy S with high
temperatures mainly in the mid 80s (more comfortable N and
central where dew pts will be in the 60s).

An upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out
later Friday while the area an high pressure off the Southeast
coast begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The
front is forecast to lift back north into the southeastern
portion of the area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain
chances Friday night will be across south-central VA and NE
North Carolina in the vicinity of the boundary, then chances
spread back north on Saturday as the front shifts north. The
higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be mainly south of
the I-64 corridor where likely PoPs remain in the forecast.
Highs Saturday in the low-mid 80s.

A positively tilted trough will start to dip down into the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as the upper ridge remains
centered off the SE coast. The stalled front won`t move very
much, but it does become a bit more diffuse on Sunday so
generally should see rain chances focus in the aftn/evening
rather than all day. Variably cloudy and a bit warmer with highs
in the mid 80s to around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled with above normal rain chances.

- Humid with average temperatures fairly close to normal.

An upper trough will generally sit over the central part of the
country, while an upper ridge remains centered off the Mid Atlc
and SE coast. This pattern remains fairly consistent through
the extended period, keeping a moist SW flow aloft in place.
A nearly stalled frontal or sfc trough will be near or over the
region, with at least high chance PoPs each day, focused
primarily in the aftn/evening (40-60%). Variably cloudy, very
warm and humid through the period, with highs generally in the
mid 80s to near 90, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

Showers and tstms will diminish/end over SE VA and NE NC after
02Z. Expecting dry conditions at all terminals overnight into
Friday morning as a cold front pushes south of the local area.
MVFR CIGS expected at ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY after 03z, while remaining
VFR at RIC.

Outlook: Mainly VFR/dry Friday over the north and central, with
MVFR CIGS lingering at ECG thru 18z. The boundary lifts back N
Saturday with showers and tstms scattered to likely for most
areas. Sunday will see scattered, mainly aftn/evening
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms could produce strong-severe wind
  gusts this afternoon and evening over the waters.

- Generally benign conditions expected outside of any
  thunderstorms this weekend.

A cold front is located in the vicinity of the waters this
afternoon. Winds are NW 5-10 kt across the N and SSE 5-10 kt
across the S. Along the front, showers and storms have
developed and may pose a threat of strong wind gusts, heavy
rain, and frequent lightning to mariners through this evening,
in addition to locally higher seas/waves. A severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect for the southern waters through 9 PM. Outside
of storms, generally quiet conditions with winds becoming
northerly tonight. There may be a brief surge in winds
immediately behind the front near or just after sunrise, though
confidence in SCA conditions is very low. For now, expecting
10-15 kt winds with gusts to 20 kt. E/NE flow lightens Friday
afternoon, with the wind direction shifting to the SE and then S
for Saturday as the front lifts back N as a warm front. Benign
conditions are expected Sunday- Tuesday with sub-SCA S/SW winds.
Afternoon showers/storm chances continue through the period.
Waves and seas average 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively.

A moderate rip risk continues across nrn beaches today. While NNE/NE
winds will be elevated only briefly Friday morning/early Friday
afternoon, there may be enough chop and wind waves to suggest a
moderate rip risk and have introduced this into the SRF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SW