521
FXUS61 KAKQ 071453
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1053 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Very warm and
humid conditions continue through the week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are
  likely across NE NC and are possible across SE VA and the
  Eastern Shore.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible in NE NC.

A cold front is pushing through the area late this morning, and
is situated near the VA-NC border. A broad upper trough is over
the upper Midwest, with two areas of upper ridging: one near
Bermuda and one over the ern Gulf of Mexico and SE CONUS. A
cutoff low resides in between the two areas of ridging. A few
showers continue just to the north of the front with widespread
cloud cover due to moisture getting pulled NE between the trough
to the NW and ridge to the SE. Temps are mainly in the upper
70s-80s. Given the cloud cover (that should linger through much
of the day), temps will be "cooler" today with highs in the low-
mid 90s in most areas. Afternoon dew points are expected to
range from the mid 60s NW (behind the cold front) to the mid 70s
SE. As such, heat indices will be in the 90s in most areas with
~100F heat indices near the coast.

The front won`t move much today and will likely stall across
far SE VA or NE NC before moving back north as a warm front late
this evening-tonight before eventually washing out. Expect
scattered tstms to develop along/ahead of the cold front by 2-3
PM (from central NC to extreme SE VA and NE NC) with storms
persisting through at least part of the evening. There could
also be tstm or two over the Eastern Shore off the sea breeze
this aftn. Have maintained likely PoPs across far SE portions of
the FA with mainly slight chc PoPs inland (and PoPs below 15%
NW of the RIC Metro). The highest coverage of tstms is expected
to be in the 2-9 PM timeframe. With PWATs of 2-2.2" remaining
across SE VA/NE NC, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
storms. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across
NE NC to account for this potential. A few storms may be strong
as well with localized damaging winds due to wet microbursts
possible. Showers and storms quickly taper off after with lows
in the lower 70s W to mid 70s E tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday and Tuesday,
  mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 100-105F Monday and
  100-108F Tuesday.

Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a by Tue as a
trough picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region
late Mon into Tue. This will result in slight height rises over
the FA with low- level southerly flow. As such temps increase
from the low-mid 90s on Mon (heat indices of 100-105F) to the
mid 90s inland to lower 90s along the coast on Tue (heat indices
of 100-108F). Heat indices around 105F look isolated enough Mon
to maintain no heat headlines. However, with widespread heat
indices of 105-108F across interior portions of the FA on Tue,
Heat Advisories are possible. Apart from the continued heat,
unsettled weather continues as well with scattered showers and
storms possible (30-50% PoPs) Mon (best chance S) and Tue
(30-35% PoPs). Lows in the low-mid 70s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and
  evening showers and storms.

Daily chances for showers/storms (highest during the
afternoon/evening) will continue through the remainder of the
week as weak S-SW flow aloft continues across the area in
between broader troughing to the NW and ridging offshore. The
remnants of Beryl lift NE into the Great Lakes by Wed with
direct rainfall from the system remaining to the NW of the local
area. PWs may remain at or above 2.0" through the week, allowing
for very humid conditions and the daily diurnal chance for
showers/storms. While there likely won`t be as much of a severe
threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week,
particularly if storms train over the same areas day after day.
PoPs increase to 35-55% Wed, 50-55% Thu, and 55-60% Fri and Sat.

Wednesday will be the hottest day of the period with highs in
the lower- mid 90s (and heat indices of 100-105F). Otherwise, highs
mainly in the 85-90F range from Thu- Sat. Lows mainly between
70-75F through the period (locally cooler in the Piedmont).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue today with a mixture of
cirrus and CU. Scattered light showers will be possible across S
central VA this morning as the cold front pushes SE. CU develop
in the afternoon with scattered showers and storms developing
across SE VA/NE NC as well as the Eastern Shore. Highest
confidence is at ECG/SBY with lower confidence at ORF/PHF. IFR
VIS will be possible in any showers/storms. Showers and storms
taper off in the evening with some MVFR CIGs possible late.
Additionally, some marine fog may move onshore the Eastern Shore
tonight with IFR/MVFR VIS with additional ground fog possible
at ORF/PHF.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening
timeframe).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Generally benign, typical summertime conditions are expected
through midweek.

- There is a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches today.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just west of the
waters with winds out of the S to SW ranging from 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay
are running around 1 to 2 feet.

The cold front will stall/dissipate over or near the local waters on
today. Predominately sub-SCA winds are expected today through
Wednesday, generally running around 5 to 15 knots out of the S or
SE. Sub-SCA conditions look to continue through much of the mid to
late week period.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A few record high minimum temp records were set yesterday with
80F at ORF (tied the daily record), 77F at SBY (tied the daily
record), and 79F at ECG (broke the record of 78F from 1999).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AKQ