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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
048 FXAK67 PAJK 191327 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 527 AM AKDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SHORT TERM...Rain is in the forecast for SE AK once more, though with considerably lower QPF totals than experienced in some recent days. Satellite and radar imagery show that a decaying plume of moisture, the remnants of the previous atmospheric river, have begun moving back N bringing precipitation back to the northern half of the area. This band of precipitation will swiftly move off to the NW through the day, though it will be followed close behind by lingering chances of showers driven by onshore flow through much of the latter half of the day. The greatest QPF totals will be for the northern half of the area and outer coastal communities, though do not expect more than 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain through the day on Friday. Winds will largely stay between 10 to 15 kt across most of the inner channels as the remnant system moves through - the system has largely been deprived of its previous dynamic setup. A few areas, including Clarence Strait and parts of the outer coastal waters could see higher wind speeds, but most land - based areas will remain on the lower side of wind speeds. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...500 mb low remains over the AK Gulf until mid week when the pattern shifts to the east. Main surface low over the SW Gulf keeps moving in rain bands over SE AK. Expected the periods of rain with occasional clear breaks in between to last into next week. As the main flow pattern shifts east the surface low will also track eastward where it moves in next wave of moderate rainfall. Due to the more easterly track will not get the long fetch of moisture seen previously so rain fall amounts not as high. Temps pick up some due to southerly flow. Winds will be 15 kt or less for most of the long range. && .AVIATION...Biggest aviation concerns today are centered around the southern panhandle. The breaks in the clouds have caused very low clouds and thick fog. LIFR to IFR conditions are looking to last through the morning with slight improvement this afternoon before decreasing again tonight. Hi-res models give areas around Prince of Wales Island and Ketchikan around a 50 to 70% chance of LIFR conditions returning after 10PM tonight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are being reported at surface stations and webcams. A weak wave is moving north so some lowered clouds and reduced visibility from rain is possible today, but conditions shouldn`t lower below MVFR. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ330. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...GJS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau