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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
792 FXAK67 PAJK 182204 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Much quieter short range forecast today as what is left of the atmospheric river that affected the area yesterday is now mainly over Misty Fjords in a weaker form. The rest of the panhandle is enjoying drier weather with several breaks in the cloud cover (after the fog diminished this morning). Into Friday night, the forecast will mainly be influenced by a short wave that will be moving NW through the eastern gulf as it rotates around a stronger low in the south central gulf. Not only will it have its own area of wind and rain to deal with, it will also be dragging the remains of the atmospheric river back west across the panhandle Friday into Friday night. This will result in another period of rain for most of the panhandle as this feature moves NW. However, the former atmospheric river will be much weaker and moisture depleted by this point as the short wave will have cut it off from its primary moisture source. It will also be making steady progress NW so it will not be over an area for an extended period of time. As for the rain with the short wave itself, most of that will stay out over the Gulf waters, and there is not much moisture associated with it anyways. As such rainfall is expected to be light with total rainfall of less then a half inch for most areas. Wind wise, highest winds will be across the SE gulf and southern panhandle as the short wave moves NW Friday. In the gulf waters expect at most 25 kt winds while the southern inner channels will likely top out at 20 kt. Inner channel areas farther north will mostly stay lighter and will likely see northerly offshore winds after late tonight as weak ridging along the coast mountains interacts with the lows in the gulf to form a more northerly pressure gradient through the northern inner channels. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...500 mb low remains over the AK Gulf until mid week when the pattern shifts to the east. Main surface low over the SW Gulf keeps moving in rain bands over SE AK. Expected the periods of rain with occasional clear breaks in between to last into next week. As the main flow pattern shifts east the surface low will also track eastward where it moves in next wave of moderate rainfall. Due to the more easterly track will not get the long fetch of moisture seen previously so rain fall amounts not as high. Temps pick up some due to southerly flow. Winds will be 15 kt or less for most of the long range. && .AVIATION...Fine flying conditions this afternoon with better than 3000/5 north of a line from Taku Inlet to Sitka. South of there, marginal visual conditions with occasional CIGS less than 1000 ft. As the short wave currently producing rain over the southern Panhandle shifts north, conditions over the northern half will deteriorate, but should remain at or above 1000/3 for the next 24 hours. To the south, little to no change in CIGS, but precipitation should taper off overnight. Late night fog expected to return over the southern half with impacts to early morning aviation operations likely. Once the fog dissipates, scattered shower activity may pick up again tomorrow afternoon. Light to mod turbulence expected tomorrow for locations south of Icy Strait, but no LLWS expected. && .HYDROLOGY...Flooding issues are improving across the area. Currently only the Chilkat is still above minor flood stage. All the other rivers in the northern panhandle have fallen below minor flood stage and continue to show diminishing trends. Southern Panhandle water ways did show rises from the rainfall overnight, but did not approach bankfull conditions (except for Falls Creek near Petersburg which did get to bankfull but has since fallen below that point once again). Except for the Chilkat, no other flooding is expected with the lack of significant rainfall expected through the next few days. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAL LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...Fritsch Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau