048
FXAK67 PAJK 191327
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
527 AM AKDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SHORT TERM...Rain is in the forecast for SE AK once more, though
with considerably lower QPF totals than experienced in some
recent days.

Satellite and radar imagery show that a decaying plume of
moisture, the remnants of the previous atmospheric river, have
begun moving back N bringing precipitation back to the northern
half of the area. This band of precipitation will swiftly move off
to the NW through the day, though it will be followed close
behind by lingering chances of showers driven by onshore flow
through much of the latter half of the day. The greatest QPF
totals will be for the northern half of the area and outer coastal
communities, though do not expect more than 0.25 to 0.5 inches of
rain through the day on Friday. Winds will largely stay between
10 to 15 kt across most of the inner channels as the remnant
system moves through - the system has largely been deprived of its
previous dynamic setup. A few areas, including Clarence Strait
and parts of the outer coastal waters could see higher wind
speeds, but most land - based areas will remain on the lower side
of wind speeds.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...500 mb low remains over
the AK Gulf until mid week when the pattern shifts to the east.
Main surface low over the SW Gulf keeps moving in rain bands over
SE AK. Expected the periods of rain with occasional clear breaks
in between to last into next week. As the main flow pattern
shifts east the surface low will also track eastward where it
moves in next wave of moderate rainfall. Due to the more easterly
track will not get the long fetch of moisture seen previously so
rain fall amounts not as high. Temps pick up some due to southerly
flow. Winds will be 15 kt or less for most of the long range.

&&

.AVIATION...Biggest aviation concerns today are centered around
the southern panhandle. The breaks in the clouds have caused very
low clouds and thick fog. LIFR to IFR conditions are looking to
last through the morning with slight improvement this afternoon
before decreasing again tonight. Hi-res models give areas around
Prince of Wales Island and Ketchikan around a 50 to 70% chance of
LIFR conditions returning after 10PM tonight.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions are being reported at surface stations
and webcams. A weak wave is moving north so some lowered clouds
and reduced visibility from rain is possible today, but conditions
shouldn`t lower below MVFR.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ330.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...GJS

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