610
FXAK67 PAJK 052238
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...High pressure remains over the gulf this afternoon.
With that, mid and low level clouds remain over most of the gulf
as well as the panhandle from Angoon northward. These clouds are
expected to remain over the area for the evening and should see
some expansion as well as high pressure continues to control the
predominant weather heading into the weekend. Rain chances remain
low but there is a chance of seeing some light accumulations with
the low clouds over the area. Temperatures are expected to
continue with a warming trend from day to day but should remain
fairly comfortable for the weekend. Elsewhere, sea breezes will
continue to allow for winds through the inner channels to reach up
to 25 kt at times during the afternoon. But these winds are not
expected to get much faster and should calm down during the
evening hours.

.LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains
in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather.
Increasing probability of rain & wind mid week next week.

On Sunday and Monday, the previously entrenched ridge will
strengthen with anticyclonic flow aloft strengthening as well. The
result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle with
temperatures in most areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally,
typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden,
Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in
the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and
potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week.

As for model preference for this forecast, while the NBM was used as
a base for the forecast, lended preference towards the 0z and 12z
Euro. These models matched relatively closely to ensemble 500 mb
heights. One particular note for beyond the drier period is the
potential for a windier system to move into the panhandle. EFI
tables are beginning to show a shift of tales of 0 with 80% of
members agreeing. What all this means is there is potential for
higher than normal wind gusts for this time of year. Furthermore,
moist, southwesterly flow hitting up against the northeast shore
will cause moderate rain for around two days mid week. Thinking the
60th to 75th percentile of the NBM for rainfall due to closer match
with the Euro solution. While the Euro solution is a fair bit wetter
(75th to ~85th percentile of the NBM), tempering down the forecast
seemed appropriate. All in all what this translates into is up to
about 1 inch per day for Yakutat mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...The southern panhandle will remain in VFR conditions
throughout the period with SCT to BKN ceilings in the area. There
is a differnt story in the northern panhandle with conditions in
mainly MVFR with periods of VFR. These MVFR conditions are due to
bands of precipitation through the area that drops ceilings
heights.Then the main concern will be in Yakutat with IFR
conditions that started this morning expecting to continue
throughout the period. Yakutat will see both low visibilities of
1 mile and ceilings as low as 500ft. These conditions will break
at times to MVFR conditions.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-641-642-644.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...EAB

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