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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
610 FXAK69 PAFG 112007 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1207 PM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cool pattern with showers over the Interior persists into early next week. Strong fronts will cross the W Arctic the next few days. Increasing southwest winds along the coast next week will bring in higher water levels to coastal regions. High waters on the Tanana River will also continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... There is a large upper level low over the Mainland, with spokes on a wheel rotating around this in the form of lower amplitude shortwaves. The first is a strong storm which moved inland across Bristol Bay yesterday and is moving northeast into the Yukon. There is another shortwave trough moving from the Gulf of Anadyr to the N Bering Sea. There is a strong 519 dam arctic low near Wrangel Island. Downslope winds continue across the AK Range which is keeping the Interior in only intermittent showers along with continued south winds. Model and Forecast Discussion... Several arctic fronts will move to the NW Arctic, the first being tonight. A much stronger one will move across from west to east Monday and Tuesday. Weak ridging will build inland at that same time, with increasing southwest onshore flow over the West Coast. The dynamical and numerical ensembles are all in good agreement now with the general flow and pattern. Things don`t really get uncertain until midweek as a strong coastal low is possible sometime Thursday into Friday. Central and Eastern Interior... Light showers today will become more widespread tonight as a the downslope winds across the Alaska Range end, and winds in the passes weaken. Isolated thunder today is relegated to the ALCAN border over the Fortymile Uplands. Showers continue into tomorrow but will be gradually dissipating. Some patchy overnight fog is likely Monday night as skies partly clear, and with temps falling well into the 40s. Drying out and slowly warming Tuesday, but warming up much more Wednesday as we approach seasonal normal values again over the Interior, which is the upper 60s. West Coast and Western Interior... Showers over the Interior dissipate tonight. Another low will clip the YK Delta to Lower Yukon with more light rainfall late this evening and tonight then quickly shift into the Gulf. The pattern will turn to more southwest flow driven which means extensive stratus along the coast with periods of fog. Fronts will clip the NW Arctic with periods of rainfall Tue and Wed. A stronger storm is on tap for later in the week. North Slope and Brooks Range... Weak high pressure dominates the Arctic and N Slope with extensive stratus and some areas of fog. A weak arctic front will move east across the W Arctic tonight and early tomorrow with west winds and a shot of rainfall. Attention turns to a much stronger arctic front which will bring gales to the W Arctic from Point Hope to near Utqiagvik with southwest winds on Monday and Tuesday. Much better chance of rain with this system, but with the wind trajectories some warming will also occur with the south winds component over the E Arctic on Tue and Wed. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... A broad upper trough extending from the Arctic to the Bering Sea will be in place Wednesday with a ridge over the E Interior. A coastal low will develop from the Bering on Thursday and Friday and shift into the West Coast, bringing widespread rainfall and possible gales. The low track is highly uncertain, so locals around the West Coast will want to remain alert to future forecasts, as there is a chance for elevated water levels and a strong coastal low. Wednesday and Thursday are warmer after several cool days over the Interior, then it cools as the West Coast low shifts east during the weekend. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph along the West Coast Monday through Wednesday will promote elevated water levels of 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line. A coastal low may impact the West Coast Thursday and Friday with higher water levels possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler and damp out west continues through the period, with increasing chances for light showers and wetting rains over the E Interior tonight and tomorrow as the upper trough moves east. Downslope winds in the AK Range passes end late this afternoon. Isolated wet thunder is possible near the ALCAN border today from Northway to Eagle. Warming up slightly Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Interior. && .HYDROLOGY... The Tanana River crested at Big Delta Saturday, and at Fairbanks this morning, both at action stage and just below flood stage. Water will continue to move downstream, but remain at action stage and below flood stage. Water levels at Fairbanks will remain high for the next several days, but currently it is projected to now be below minor flood stage at Fairbanks. Inundation of gravel bars as well as minor flooding remains possible with these elevated river levels. No significant rainfall is anticipated the next several days, otherwise. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-810-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859. && $$ Ahsenmacher