610
FXAK69 PAFG 112007
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1207 PM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool pattern with showers over the Interior persists
into early next week. Strong fronts will cross the W Arctic the
next few days. Increasing southwest winds along the coast next
week will bring in higher water levels to coastal regions. High
waters on the Tanana River will also continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a large upper level low over the Mainland, with spokes on
a wheel rotating around this in the form of lower amplitude
shortwaves. The first is a strong storm which moved inland across
Bristol Bay yesterday and is moving northeast into the Yukon.
There is another shortwave trough moving from the Gulf of Anadyr
to the N Bering Sea. There is a strong 519 dam arctic low near
Wrangel Island. Downslope winds continue across the AK Range which
is keeping the Interior in only intermittent showers along with
continued south winds.

Model and Forecast Discussion...
Several arctic fronts will move to the NW Arctic, the first being
tonight. A much stronger one will move across from west to east
Monday and Tuesday. Weak ridging will build inland at that same
time, with increasing southwest onshore flow over the West Coast.
The dynamical and numerical ensembles are all in good agreement
now with the general flow and pattern. Things don`t really get
uncertain until midweek as a strong coastal low is possible
sometime Thursday into Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light showers today will become more widespread tonight as a the
downslope winds across the Alaska Range end, and winds in the
passes weaken. Isolated thunder today is relegated to the ALCAN
border over the Fortymile Uplands. Showers continue into tomorrow
but will be gradually dissipating. Some patchy overnight fog is
likely Monday night as skies partly clear, and with temps falling
well into the 40s. Drying out and slowly warming Tuesday, but
warming up much more Wednesday as we approach seasonal normal
values again over the Interior, which is the upper 60s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Showers over the Interior dissipate tonight. Another low will clip
the YK Delta to Lower Yukon with more light rainfall late this
evening and tonight then quickly shift into the Gulf. The pattern
will turn to more southwest flow driven which means extensive
stratus along the coast with periods of fog. Fronts will clip the
NW Arctic with periods of rainfall Tue and Wed. A stronger storm
is on tap for later in the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Weak high pressure dominates the Arctic and N Slope with
extensive stratus and some areas of fog. A weak arctic front will
move east across the W Arctic tonight and early tomorrow with west
winds and a shot of rainfall. Attention turns to a much stronger
arctic front which will bring gales to the W Arctic from Point
Hope to near Utqiagvik with southwest winds on Monday and
Tuesday. Much better chance of rain with this system, but with the
wind trajectories some warming will also occur with the south
winds component over the E Arctic on Tue and Wed.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A broad upper trough extending from the Arctic to the Bering Sea
will be in place Wednesday with a ridge over the E Interior. A
coastal low will develop from the Bering on Thursday and Friday
and shift into the West Coast, bringing widespread rainfall and
possible gales. The low track is highly uncertain, so locals
around the West Coast will want to remain alert to future
forecasts, as there is a chance for elevated water levels and a
strong coastal low. Wednesday and Thursday are warmer after
several cool days over the Interior, then it cools as the West
Coast low shifts east during the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Southwest winds of 20 to
30 mph along the West Coast Monday through Wednesday will promote
elevated water levels of 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide
line. A coastal low may impact the West Coast Thursday and Friday
with higher water levels possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler and damp out west continues through the period, with
increasing chances for light showers and wetting rains over the E
Interior tonight and tomorrow as the upper trough moves east.
Downslope winds in the AK Range passes end late this afternoon.
Isolated wet thunder is possible near the ALCAN border today from
Northway to Eagle. Warming up slightly Wednesday as a ridge
builds over the Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Tanana River crested at Big Delta Saturday, and at Fairbanks
this morning, both at action stage and just below flood stage.
Water will continue to move downstream, but remain at action stage
and below flood stage. Water levels at Fairbanks will remain high
for the next several days, but currently it is projected to now be
below minor flood stage at Fairbanks. Inundation of gravel bars
as well as minor flooding remains possible with these elevated
river levels. No significant rainfall is anticipated the next
several days, otherwise.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher