644
FXAK69 PAFG 041007
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 AM AKDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be similar to yesterday but the rain will be a bit
heavier in the Interior and the wind will be a bit lighter. The
exception will be around the Yukon Flats and SW Interior where
wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with the rain once again.
Otherwise, expect temperatures 5-10+ degrees below normal as it
will stay cool, wet and windy. The West Coast and North Slope
remain breezy with chances for rain as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 mb, the models initialized quite well compared to the 00z
radiosonde data in Northern AK. At 00z we had a 536 decameter low
north of Utqiagvik a 592 decameter high in the Central NPAC with
an appendage into SW AK and South Central east to Northway.
Otherwise, in between this, over mainland AK, is westerly to
northwesterly flow with shortwaves moving through the flow from
west to east. There is also a 555 decameter low in the Gulf about
700 miles south of Kodiak. Currently at 09z, the low in the
Arctic is shifting to the east with 2 more waves of energy behind
it, the ridge in the NPAC hasn`t budged and the low remains in
nearly the same spot as well.

Surface Analysis...
Similar to aloft, we have a 993 mb low in the Arctic moving east
into the Canadian Archipelago, a 1036 mb high in the Central NPAC
and a 1024 mb low to the east in the Gulf. Otherwise, west-
southwest flow at the surface is dominant.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another round of rain and wind will be arriving today and this
could come with more moderate to heavy rain. Expect widespread
rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.50" with localized areas,
especially in the higher terrain pushing 1.00". The driest areas
come in the N. Yukon Flats and SE Interior from Delta Junction to
Northway where 0.10" or less is expected. The wind doesn`t look to
be as strong in the southern Interior, but a few gusts to 35 mph
are possible. The strongest winds will be in the YK Flats with
gusts as high as 40 mph possible. Rain and breezy conditions
continue through the day on Friday before both the rain and wind
comes to a brief halt Friday night. Breezy conditions look to
prevail but gradually weaken this weekend, but rain moves back
into the Interior Saturday afternoon with another round possible
on Sunday. Rainfall totals through Sunday are quite high with the
terrain potentially receiving upwards of 3" while locations
outside of the N. YK Flats and SE Interior accumulating
0.50-1.50".

West Coast and Western Interior...
Another round of rain is currently moving through the West Coast
and will make it into the Western Interior later this morning.
The West Coast will gradually dry out with only lingering showers
this afternoon while the bulk of the rain moves into the Interior.
Expect another 0.25-0.50" of Rain from the Southern Seward Pen.
through the Norton Sound to the YK Delta this morning. In the
Interior, expect 0.25-0.75" this afternoon with the highest
amounts in the higher terrain. This rain also comes with some
wind, potentially gusting as high as 35-40 mph from Galena South.
Any trees have the chance to lose some branches or limbs and there
may be localized power outages as a result. The wind will subside
a bit tonight and remain lighter tomorrow with rain continuing at
times for most of the Western Interior. Friday night looks to
gradually dry out, then Saturday comes with another front, though
this one looks to be much weaker with less wind and total
rainfall. Sunday will have another chance for heavier rain.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rain showers will be on and off through the day today with the
steadiest rain expected in the West/Central Brooks Range. Winds
will also be gusty from the west/northwest today with peak gusts
around 25-35 mph this morning, then gradually weakening through
the afternoon. More widespread rain arrives tonight after midnight
and continues through Friday and into Saturday. Expect 0.10-0.25"
of rain along the coast today with the highest amounts up to 0.40"
east of Deadhorse as well as in the Brooks Range. Tonight through
tomorrow, expect widespread rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.50".
Heading into Saturday, especially the afternoon and evening,
temperatures will be dropping off pretty significantly with high
temperatures in the 30s to near 40 along the coast. There is a
chance for a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover to snow west
of Deadhorse. Given the rain beforehand, accumulations are not
likely at this point.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Rainy and cooler conditions will continue in the extended with
several rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 594
decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the
weekend, weaken and then gradually shift south next week. Upper
level troughing over the state will persist and then a low in the
Gulf will get caught up in the main flow making for broad
troughing over much of the state by the middle of next week.
Looking towards the end of the week, ensembles do diverge a bit,
as expected, and we could be looking towards a more typical
pattern with troughing over the west and southerly flow over the
east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
As strong SW winds persist, expect sea level heights to remain
about 0.5-2 feet above the normal high tide line this weekend from
Nome South. The highest water levels that we are seeing occur
near Koyuk with 4-5 feet of rise expected through this weekend.
Those with items on the beach should continue to take precautions
as water levels remain high until the beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, widespread, heavier rain than yesterday arrives for most
locations and this continues into Friday. Several locations in
the Interior will be around 0.50-0.75" of rain with the exception
of SE AK and the N. Yukon Flats where around 0.10" of rain is
expected. Winds will be gusty once again, but slightly weaker in
the Southern/Central Interior. There may be a few gusts as high as
35 mph, though most should be below that. The only exception with
wind will be in SW AK and the N. YK Flats, where winds may gust
as high as 40 mph briefly this afternoon. Temperatures remain cool
through this weekend with high minimum RHs and a winds gradually
weakening. Several more rounds of rain move through N. AK through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range on Tuesday resulted in a
quick rise in river levels but these have crested and are coming
back down. However, persistent rain events in the Brooks Range
through this weekend and next week may keep some rivers and creeks
elevated.

In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day
through the weekend as well with rainfall amounts upwards of
1.00-3.00". The highest amounts should be expected in the higher
terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-807-852-853-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco