Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
644 FXAK69 PAFG 041007 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 207 AM AKDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be similar to yesterday but the rain will be a bit heavier in the Interior and the wind will be a bit lighter. The exception will be around the Yukon Flats and SW Interior where wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with the rain once again. Otherwise, expect temperatures 5-10+ degrees below normal as it will stay cool, wet and windy. The West Coast and North Slope remain breezy with chances for rain as well. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... At 500 mb, the models initialized quite well compared to the 00z radiosonde data in Northern AK. At 00z we had a 536 decameter low north of Utqiagvik a 592 decameter high in the Central NPAC with an appendage into SW AK and South Central east to Northway. Otherwise, in between this, over mainland AK, is westerly to northwesterly flow with shortwaves moving through the flow from west to east. There is also a 555 decameter low in the Gulf about 700 miles south of Kodiak. Currently at 09z, the low in the Arctic is shifting to the east with 2 more waves of energy behind it, the ridge in the NPAC hasn`t budged and the low remains in nearly the same spot as well. Surface Analysis... Similar to aloft, we have a 993 mb low in the Arctic moving east into the Canadian Archipelago, a 1036 mb high in the Central NPAC and a 1024 mb low to the east in the Gulf. Otherwise, west- southwest flow at the surface is dominant. Central and Eastern Interior... Another round of rain and wind will be arriving today and this could come with more moderate to heavy rain. Expect widespread rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.50" with localized areas, especially in the higher terrain pushing 1.00". The driest areas come in the N. Yukon Flats and SE Interior from Delta Junction to Northway where 0.10" or less is expected. The wind doesn`t look to be as strong in the southern Interior, but a few gusts to 35 mph are possible. The strongest winds will be in the YK Flats with gusts as high as 40 mph possible. Rain and breezy conditions continue through the day on Friday before both the rain and wind comes to a brief halt Friday night. Breezy conditions look to prevail but gradually weaken this weekend, but rain moves back into the Interior Saturday afternoon with another round possible on Sunday. Rainfall totals through Sunday are quite high with the terrain potentially receiving upwards of 3" while locations outside of the N. YK Flats and SE Interior accumulating 0.50-1.50". West Coast and Western Interior... Another round of rain is currently moving through the West Coast and will make it into the Western Interior later this morning. The West Coast will gradually dry out with only lingering showers this afternoon while the bulk of the rain moves into the Interior. Expect another 0.25-0.50" of Rain from the Southern Seward Pen. through the Norton Sound to the YK Delta this morning. In the Interior, expect 0.25-0.75" this afternoon with the highest amounts in the higher terrain. This rain also comes with some wind, potentially gusting as high as 35-40 mph from Galena South. Any trees have the chance to lose some branches or limbs and there may be localized power outages as a result. The wind will subside a bit tonight and remain lighter tomorrow with rain continuing at times for most of the Western Interior. Friday night looks to gradually dry out, then Saturday comes with another front, though this one looks to be much weaker with less wind and total rainfall. Sunday will have another chance for heavier rain. North Slope and Brooks Range... Rain showers will be on and off through the day today with the steadiest rain expected in the West/Central Brooks Range. Winds will also be gusty from the west/northwest today with peak gusts around 25-35 mph this morning, then gradually weakening through the afternoon. More widespread rain arrives tonight after midnight and continues through Friday and into Saturday. Expect 0.10-0.25" of rain along the coast today with the highest amounts up to 0.40" east of Deadhorse as well as in the Brooks Range. Tonight through tomorrow, expect widespread rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.50". Heading into Saturday, especially the afternoon and evening, temperatures will be dropping off pretty significantly with high temperatures in the 30s to near 40 along the coast. There is a chance for a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover to snow west of Deadhorse. Given the rain beforehand, accumulations are not likely at this point. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Rainy and cooler conditions will continue in the extended with several rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 594 decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the weekend, weaken and then gradually shift south next week. Upper level troughing over the state will persist and then a low in the Gulf will get caught up in the main flow making for broad troughing over much of the state by the middle of next week. Looking towards the end of the week, ensembles do diverge a bit, as expected, and we could be looking towards a more typical pattern with troughing over the west and southerly flow over the east. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... As strong SW winds persist, expect sea level heights to remain about 0.5-2 feet above the normal high tide line this weekend from Nome South. The highest water levels that we are seeing occur near Koyuk with 4-5 feet of rise expected through this weekend. Those with items on the beach should continue to take precautions as water levels remain high until the beginning of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today, widespread, heavier rain than yesterday arrives for most locations and this continues into Friday. Several locations in the Interior will be around 0.50-0.75" of rain with the exception of SE AK and the N. Yukon Flats where around 0.10" of rain is expected. Winds will be gusty once again, but slightly weaker in the Southern/Central Interior. There may be a few gusts as high as 35 mph, though most should be below that. The only exception with wind will be in SW AK and the N. YK Flats, where winds may gust as high as 40 mph briefly this afternoon. Temperatures remain cool through this weekend with high minimum RHs and a winds gradually weakening. Several more rounds of rain move through N. AK through the weekend and into next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range on Tuesday resulted in a quick rise in river levels but these have crested and are coming back down. However, persistent rain events in the Brooks Range through this weekend and next week may keep some rivers and creeks elevated. In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day through the weekend as well with rainfall amounts upwards of 1.00-3.00". The highest amounts should be expected in the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and streams. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-807-852-853-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. && $$ Bianco