Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
160 FXAK69 PAFG 071015 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 215 AM AKDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The cool and wet pattern continues into next week as upper level troughing remains the dominant feature. The West Coast and Western Interior get a brief reprieve in rainfall today, but rain returns Monday. Across the Central and Eastern Interior, rainfall remains likely southeast of a line from Arctic Valley to Tanana to McGrath with another quarter of an inch to half an inch of rain expected. Further north, in the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast, a rain/snow mix is possible today. && .DISCUSSION... Synoptic Analysis and Forecast... Aloft, at 500 mb, broad upper level troughing encompasses much of mainland Alaska, with a 532 dam (decameter) low centered over the coastal waters north of Nuiqsut. The low center will track eastward through Monday, while a 533 dam low in the high Arctic northwest of Wrangel Island drops southeast to be between Wrangel Island Point Lay by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, shortwave energy will push across the Chukotsk Peninsula and the Bering Strait Monday evening and to the West Coast by Tuesday morning, continuing east across the Western Interior through Tuesday night. At the surface, a 994 mb low is 150 NM southwest of Banks Island with a front extending southwest to Arctic Valley to Galena. The low lifts northeast to be 50 NM south of Banks Island Sunday afternoon and over Banks Island Monday morning at 996 mb, dragging the front east northeast. Meanwhile, a 1007 mb low develops near Arctic Valley Sunday, sliding south to be centered near Venetie by Monday morning and then weakening through Tuesday morning. A 1000 mb low in the high Arctic north of Wrangel Island Monday morning drops south and deepens to 995 mb to be 350 NM northwest of Point Lay Monday afternoon, continuing south to be 150 NM northwest of Point Lay by Tuesday morning, and 50 NM west of Point Hope by Wednesday morning. A 1009 mb low moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Monday morning continuing southeast to be near St Lawrence Island Monday afternoon and then to near Norton Sound Tuesday morning. North Slope and Brooks Range... Cooler temperatures expected today with highs largely in the 30s to near 40. Precip continues, with the best chances across the central and eastern Brooks Range. Given colder temperatures and lower snow levels, a mix of rain and snow is possible today into Monday. Accumulating snow is not expected along the coast or in the Arctic Plain, but locations above 3000 feet in the Brooks Range may see a slushy coating of snow. It will be difficult to accumulate anything given the previous warm temperatures but highest elevations near Atigun Pass could see an inch of two of accumulation along the Highway through today. Temperatures begin to moderate Monday. West Coast and Western Interior... A brief reprieve in rain expected today, before the next round moves in Monday morning, primarily to St Lawrence Island and areas south of the Seward Peninsula, pushing eastward into the southern western Interior Monday night and Tuesday. A quarter of an inch of rain expected from St Lawrence Island to Nome to McGrath, with half an inch expected over the Y-K Delta. A front dropping out of the Arctic Monday night into Tuesday will bring more rain. Another quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch expected Tuesday into Tuesday night across the Western Interior, with the highest amounts falling in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Temperatures remain cool. Central and Eastern Interior... Rain persists today, primarily southeast of a line from Arctic Valley to Tanana to McGrath with another quarter of an inch to half an inch possible, with locally higher amounts in the Alaska Range. Rain chances continue Monday with the best chances from Eagle southwest to the Alaska Range, where another tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain is possible. A front pushing across the Western Interior Tuesday will approach the Central Interior increasing rain chances late Tuesday. Temperatures slowly warm Monday and Tuesday into the upper 50s in the northwest and the and lower to mid 60s southeast. Southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Monday night into Tuesday. Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The rainy and cooler pattern will continue into next week as upper level troughing remains the dominant feature. By the end of next week temperatures moderate, especially over the eastern half of the state as an upper level low in the Gulf brings southerly flow aloft. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unseasonably cool and generally wet conditions persist across northern Alaska. Another quarter to half an inch of rain expected today along and southeast of a line from Arctic Village to McGrath. Quieter conditions along the West Coast and Western Interior today, will give way to more rain Monday, with another quarter of an inch to half an inch of rain expected from the southern Seward Peninsula south to the Yukon Delta. On Tuesday, with the approach and passage of yet another front, Another quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch expected Tuesday into Tuesday night across the Western Interior, with the highest amounts falling in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Breezy west to southwest winds across the Interior summits today with lighter winds Monday and Tuesday for most locations. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Sag, Wulik, Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams. In the Interior, rain continues today with an additional quarter to half an inch possible. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and streams. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...None. && $$