801
FXUS65 KABQ 090549 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are forecast for the remainder of the week and the coming weekend.
Storms will favor areas along and east of the continental divide
through Wednesday evening, then they will favor locations along
and west of the central mountain chain during the latter half of
the week and the coming weekend. The greatest risk for mainly
burn scar flash flooding looks to occur Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The upper high continues to bake central and southern CA while the
northern plains trough slowly shifts eastward, and Beryl has made
landfall into eastern TX. This has kept northwesterly flow aloft
over NM with a shortwave trough sliding into north central and
northeastern areas of the state. At the surface, a drastic change
occurred over central and eastern areas of NM with last nights
backdoor front, as higher dewpoints have spilled in with earlier low
stratus and now a much cooler temperature regime. The added
moisture, upslope flow (on east and southeast faces) and shortwave
energy aloft is kicking off thunderstorms over the northern
mountains and even a few in the far northeast plains. The prominent
directional shear will bring increasing opportunities for strong to
severe cells through the remainder of the afternoon as cells drift
south southeastward. This will likely yield storms into the Las
Vegas, Santa Fe, Albuquerque and some central highland areas by late
afternoon and early evening. These cells would then trail off and
largely diminish before midnight.

Not much shift or change is expected with the placement or strength
of the upper high on Tuesday, and despite the shortwave trough
having exited, a more robust crop of storms is expected. The central
mountain chain will not have the expansive low clouds that it had
today, and this will allow quicker destabilization to occur by early
Tuesday afternoon. PWATs will remain highest along and east of the
central mountain chain, but the areas near and just east of the
Continental Divide will also exhibit relatively higher values of 0.8
to 1.0 inch. Surface winds will have veered southerly in many
locations and this will keep a large directional swing with height
with sufficient shear for a few strong to severe cells. While no
individual CAMs show a direct hit for the HPCC scar, the numerous
cells around the Sangres has prompted an expansion of the Flood
Watch to these zones for Tuesday.  Storms will roll off of the high
terrain and into adjacent lower elevations Tuesday evening with
outflow boundary collisions leading to new cells, perhaps well into
the early morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are forecast. The upper high will migrate from over NV Wednesday
to over CO by Sunday. As a result, storms will favor the
continental divide eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening, then
the central mountain chain westward for the remainder of the week.
At this time, the greatest risk for mainly burn scar flash
flooding looks to occur Wednesday as storms generally move from
north to south over the central mountain chain. Storms will take
on a greater westerly component of motion with each day
thereafter, as the high pressure system gradually moves from west
northwest to north of NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The last of this evening`s convection is dissipating near KSAF
with clearing skies and light winds expected overnight. Showers
and storms with localized MVFR conditions develop over the
northern, central and southwest mountains beginning 18Z drifting
southeast into lower elevations during the afternoon and evening
hours. This will impact KLVS, KSRR, KONM during the afternoon and
northeast TAF sites including KCAO and possibly KTCC come the
evening. A storm or two in northeast NM could become strong to
severe with gusty winds and large hail being the main threats.
Outflows and higher moisture from storms across the central
mountain chain and eastern NM pushes through the gaps of the
central mountain chain come Tuesday evening bringing another gusty
SE wind to KSAF and east wind to KABQ. Peak gusts of around 30
kts are expected, just below Airport Weather Warning criteria. The
east wind makes it way to the Continental Divide and impacts KFMN
at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The driest areas of the state are now the far northwestern portions
of NM and far west central areas where higher dewpoints from last
nights front have not yet invaded. A stronger east to west push is
forecast this evening as storms roll toward the middle Rio Grande
valley where some gusty east winds are expected. This east to west
push could offer some temporary relief to far northwest and west
central zones in the form of higher dewpoints and better humidity
recovery into Tuesday morning, but this moisture will likely mix out
rather quickly through Tuesday afternoon with afternoon humidity
plummeting to 15 percent or less there. This will place the best
chances for storms along the eastern faces of the Continental Divide
eastward over the central mountain chain and to a lesser extent over
the eastern plains. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. A very similar pattern is
expected to continue on Wednesday and Thursday with soaking rainfall
gradually filling in over more areas east of the Continental Divide.
Moisture will gradually become rerouted differently into Friday and
the upcoming weekend as high pressure moves north of NM, likely
leading to fewer storms. Other than tonights gust east canyon winds
(which will be aided by thunderstorms), prevailing winds will tend
to be light to moderate in speed, and any wind concerns will come
from short-lived thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  85  44  87  46 /  30  20  30  10
Cuba............................  81  51  86  52 /  20  30  30  20
Gallup..........................  91  50  91  51 /   0   0  10   5
El Morro........................  84  50  85  51 /   5  20  20  20
Grants..........................  86  52  87  53 /   5  20  20  20
Quemado.........................  88  52  88  53 /   0  10  30  30
Magdalena.......................  82  57  84  60 /  10  30  50  40
Datil...........................  84  53  84  56 /  10  20  50  30
Reserve.........................  94  52  91  52 /   5   5  50  30
Glenwood........................ 101  66  95  63 /   5  10  60  40
Chama...........................  72  44  79  46 /  50  40  50  30
Los Alamos......................  70  55  79  58 /  70  40  60  30
Pecos...........................  75  52  81  55 /  60  40  60  40
Cerro/Questa....................  71  39  77  41 /  60  40  70  30
Red River.......................  62  41  70  43 /  70  40  70  30
Angel Fire......................  64  37  72  39 /  80  40  70  30
Taos............................  77  46  80  48 /  70  40  60  30
Mora............................  64  46  76  49 /  70  40  70  40
Espanola........................  80  54  87  57 /  60  40  50  40
Santa Fe........................  74  55  81  58 /  60  40  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  78  53  84  56 /  50  30  40  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  60  89  62 /  20  30  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  61  91  63 /  10  30  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  55  93  58 /  10  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  61  91  64 /  10  30  20  30
Belen...........................  86  58  93  59 /   5  20  20  30
Bernalillo......................  85  58  92  62 /  20  30  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  87  55  92  57 /   5  20  20  30
Corrales........................  88  59  92  62 /  20  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  88  57  93  59 /   5  20  20  30
Placitas........................  81  58  87  61 /  20  30  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  85  60  91  63 /  20  30  20  30
Socorro.........................  93  62  93  64 /   5  20  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  54  83  57 /  20  20  30  30
Tijeras.........................  79  55  86  57 /  20  20  30  30
Edgewood........................  76  52  85  54 /  20  30  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  51  86  52 /  20  30  40  40
Clines Corners..................  75  50  80  53 /  30  40  60  40
Mountainair.....................  78  51  85  53 /  30  20  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  79  52  85  54 /  20  20  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  83  60  87  61 /  30  20  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  72  54  77  53 /  50  30  80  40
Capulin.........................  70  49  77  52 /  60  20  50  20
Raton...........................  75  50  81  53 /  60  20  60  20
Springer........................  73  51  83  54 /  60  20  60  20
Las Vegas.......................  69  49  77  52 /  60  30  60  40
Clayton.........................  79  57  85  59 /  40  10  20  10
Roy.............................  71  52  80  56 /  50  30  50  30
Conchas.........................  76  57  88  61 /  50  20  40  40
Santa Rosa......................  77  56  85  59 /  50  30  40  40
Tucumcari.......................  79  57  88  61 /  60  20  20  30
Clovis..........................  79  61  87  63 /  60  20  20  30
Portales........................  80  61  88  63 /  60  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  81  60  88  63 /  40  30  20  30
Roswell.........................  87  67  92  69 /  50  30  20  30
Picacho.........................  79  59  85  62 /  50  30  60  40
Elk.............................  73  56  82  57 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
NMZ214-215-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...71