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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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163 FXUS65 KABQ 092331 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 531 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain of southwestern and central New Mexico this afternoon. This activity will continue to drift southeastward, expanding into some nearby highlands and northeastern plains areas this evening before dying. Storms will be more numerous over the central mountain chain of New Mexico on Wednesday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall, and perhaps some flash flooding. Scattered storms will also be possible Wednesday over portions of the eastern plains and even the higher terrain along the Continental Divide. A very similar pattern is then expected on Thursday with storms again developing over the higher terrain, mainly from the Continental Divide and over the central mountain chain of New Mexico and eventually filling into some nearby areas. Less storms are forecast for Friday into the weekend, but scattered storms will still be possible with activity shifting a bit farther west. Temperatures will generally remain seasonable and within a few degrees of normal for mid July. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Convective initiation seems to have jived with higher resolution CAMs thus far this afternoon. With the upper high over southern CA and southern NV, storm motion has been toward the south southeast, so cells will likely fill in over the northeast highlands and northeastern plains as well as some other nearby locations through the early evening. Any kind of convectively- induced east gap wind should be fairly short-lived for just a couple to a few hours this evening, and storms are expected to largely diminish by or shortly after midnight. The stage will be set for a very active day on Wednesday, mainly across the central mountain chain which will rest on the western fringe of deeper moisture (0.9 to 1.1 inch PWATs). Storms will drift more due southward Wednesday as the upper high will have settled atop the Great Basin, and this parallel motion to the central mountain chain could lead to training, or cells repetitively moving over the same location which would enhance the flash flood risk. The previously issued Flood Watch was expanded to the Sandia/Manzano mountains for Wednesday, but burn scars will of course remain the most vulnerable areas. Storms could also expand secondarily into the east central to southeastern plains late Wednesday. Prevailing surface winds will tend to largely start out from the south as storms initialize, so this contrast with the northerly winds aloft will keep a threat for strong to severe cells. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The upper high will not move much, just slightly northeastward, still remaining stout at around 597 decameters over the Great Basin on Thursday. This will not alter the steering flow much, but cells will likely take on a heading of around 190-200. This could potentially open the door for the middle Rio Grande valley as cells move off of the Jemez, and additional storms will also develop a bit farther west in the Gila and near the divide as moisture inches that way. Into Friday and the weekend, a notable downtrend in convection is modeled as the monsoon high repositions into Colorado. This will redistribute the moisture, diffusely carrying slightly higher PWATs of 0.6 to 0.8 inch into western zones. Much of the central mountain chain would be expected to undergo a reduction in storms too. The high begins to become more ill-defined with the potential for an easterly tropical wave to move into Mexico, perhaps as far north as the borderland by late Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed earlier this afternoon over the high terrain of the central mountain chain along with a few isolated cells over the Continental Divide in western New Mexico. Storms are now drifting southeastward at 5 to 15 kt, filling into some nearby highlands and the northeastern plains These storms will likely impact KTCC perhaps KSXU, and possibly push gusty outflow winds toward KLVS, KCQC, K0E0 and even KABQ. Storms will produce heavy downpours with brief reductions in ceiling and visibility, and a few of the stronger cells will be capable of hail and damaging downburst winds. Storms will mostly come to an end before midnight, but a stray cell or two may linger into the early morning hours Wednesday. Even more coverage of storms is expected Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Higher humidity graced the northwestern and west central zones this morning as easterly winds brought in higher dewpoints. However, this moisture quickly mixed back to the east this afternoon with humidity already plummeting to 10 to 15 percent. Storms have initiated over the high terrain areas this afternoon and are expected to fill in over the northeast highlands and northeastern plains through the evening. A fairly similar pattern is expected to continue on Wednesday and Thursday with soaking rainfall gradually filling in over more areas east of the Continental Divide. The central mountain chain looks to be especially active with storms and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding each day, but particularly on Wednesday. The position of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will shift on Friday and into the upcoming weekend, causing moisture to seep westward while turning more diffuse. This will lead to fewer storms that will tend to favor western high terrain areas into the weekend. Prevailing winds will generally be light to moderate in speed, but short-lived thunderstorm outflows could quickly disrupt this. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 95 63 95 / 0 5 5 10 Dulce........................... 47 88 47 87 / 20 40 30 40 Cuba............................ 53 87 55 87 / 10 30 30 40 Gallup.......................... 50 93 54 92 / 0 0 5 30 El Morro........................ 50 87 55 85 / 10 10 20 50 Grants.......................... 54 90 56 88 / 10 20 20 40 Quemado......................... 54 90 55 89 / 10 20 20 60 Magdalena....................... 60 88 61 87 / 30 50 30 60 Datil........................... 54 87 55 85 / 20 40 30 60 Reserve......................... 52 94 52 92 / 20 40 20 70 Glenwood........................ 64 97 64 95 / 30 40 30 70 Chama........................... 46 79 46 80 / 40 60 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 58 82 59 82 / 30 60 30 60 Pecos........................... 55 81 55 82 / 40 70 40 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 80 44 81 / 40 70 30 60 Red River....................... 43 70 44 71 / 40 70 30 60 Angel Fire...................... 40 73 40 75 / 40 70 30 60 Taos............................ 48 84 49 85 / 40 50 30 50 Mora............................ 49 76 49 78 / 40 70 30 60 Espanola........................ 56 89 57 90 / 40 40 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 58 83 59 83 / 40 70 40 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 87 58 87 / 30 50 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 90 63 90 / 20 50 40 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 92 66 92 / 20 30 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 94 58 94 / 20 20 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 93 65 92 / 20 20 20 30 Belen........................... 62 95 60 94 / 20 30 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 62 93 62 93 / 20 30 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 59 94 57 93 / 20 30 30 30 Corrales........................ 61 93 62 93 / 20 30 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 60 94 59 93 / 20 30 20 30 Placitas........................ 61 89 61 89 / 20 40 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 63 92 64 92 / 20 30 20 30 Socorro......................... 64 96 65 95 / 20 40 30 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 84 58 84 / 20 50 30 50 Tijeras......................... 59 87 59 86 / 20 50 30 50 Edgewood........................ 56 85 55 86 / 20 60 30 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 87 52 87 / 30 60 30 40 Clines Corners.................. 53 81 54 81 / 30 70 30 50 Mountainair..................... 55 86 55 85 / 30 60 30 50 Gran Quivira.................... 56 86 55 85 / 30 70 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 63 88 62 86 / 40 80 40 60 Ruidoso......................... 52 79 53 78 / 40 80 50 60 Capulin......................... 50 80 52 82 / 40 40 10 30 Raton........................... 52 84 53 87 / 40 40 20 30 Springer........................ 53 85 54 87 / 40 50 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 52 78 52 80 / 40 60 30 50 Clayton......................... 59 88 61 90 / 30 20 10 10 Roy............................. 56 83 57 84 / 50 50 30 20 Conchas......................... 61 89 62 91 / 60 40 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 60 87 60 87 / 60 50 40 20 Tucumcari....................... 61 91 62 92 / 60 30 30 10 Clovis.......................... 63 90 64 90 / 50 50 40 20 Portales........................ 64 90 65 91 / 50 50 40 20 Fort Sumner..................... 64 91 64 91 / 60 50 40 20 Roswell......................... 70 95 68 94 / 30 50 30 30 Picacho......................... 62 87 61 87 / 30 70 40 50 Elk............................. 58 84 58 83 / 30 80 50 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226. Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ214-215-221>224-226-229-239-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52