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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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891 FXUS65 KABQ 200820 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 220 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A Flood Watch is in effect again today for storms producing locally heavy rainfall. Burn scar areas will be at risk first where storms develop over the mountains, before generally moving south and spreading out over surrounding lower elevations late afternoon and evening. This general weather pattern will persist each day this weekend and well into next week, threatening flash flooding where locally heavy rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Surface high pressure building down the Front Range this afternoon will allow surface winds to veer out of the east across eastern NM. Increasing moisture behind this front with greater upslope lift along the central mt chain and another upper level shortwave moving south from CO will trigger significantly greater coverage of storms with heavy rainfall today. Initiation will occur between 11am and 1pm across the northern high terrain. Storms will move south and develop on convective outflows into nearby highlands and valleys. This is a similar scenario to the past few days but with greater coverage and larger footprints of heavy rainfall. PWATs are also higher so rainfall rates will be higher along with some training cells possible in north-south steering flow. A key difference from the past few days is that a somewhat organized area of rain and storms is expected to continue tonight along the central mt chain and nearby highlands southward to Lincoln and Chaves counties. Rainfall rates are not likely to be as intense in this cluster however a longer period of light to moderate rainfall may occur after localized heavy rainfall from this afternoon. The NBM and HREF 24-hr probability for >0.50" QPF today and tonight favors the Sangre de Cristo Mts, the northeast highlands, the Sandia/Manzano Mts, the lower RGV, Gila region, and the Sacramento Mts. This further primes soils for more significant flash flooding leading into Sunday. Another backdoor surface front will move into northeast NM late tonight and serve as another focus for storm development Sunday. Given the potential for widespread cloud cover lingering over the rest of central and western NM, initiation may be slower than past days. However, the approaching convectively-aided boundary from northeast NM will eventually light up the central mt chain with another round of storms with very heavy rainfall. This activity may once again organize into a cluster of rain and storms as another upper level shortwave moves south from CO late Sunday. NBM 24-hr probabilities for >0.50" are even higher on Sunday and over a more broad area of central and eastern NM. A few strong to perhaps severe storms are also possible on both Saturday and Sunday in this pattern given effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40kt with abundant moisture and surface-based instability. Another large Flash Flood Watch is very likely for Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A heightened risk of flash flooding continues Sunday night into early Monday morning from monsoon convection once again tracking southward across northern and central NM. Storm coverage looks to be enhanced by a backdoor frontal boundary pushing through eastern NM. Areas along the central mountain chain will be at the highest risk for flash flooding during this time, including area burn scars and places that have already seen repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Convection will steadily wane through early Monday morning. Monday will start with remnant showers over eastern NM and continued cooler temperatures there behind the backdoor frontal boundary. Forecast high temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s across eastern NM, warmer west of the central mountain chain. With the monsoon high still over the Great Basin and an upper level troughing pattern over the Great Plains, storm initiation will again favor the high terrain of western and central NM. Storms will track southward, spreading out over surrounding lower elevation areas. Convective potential over the eastern plains looks to be subdued due to the cooler surface conditions yielding lesser instability. Therefore, the threat for more locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday see the same general weather pattern continue with NM still stuck between the monsoon high over the Great Basin and the troughing pattern over the Great Plains. Expect repeated rounds of afternoon storms developing over the mountains by 12pm to 1pm MDT before tracking southward over surrounding lower elevations late day and evening. High temperatures rebound across the eastern plains during this time. The monsoon high begins to be shunted southward, with its main axis tilting more SW-NE due to an upper level storm system pushing through the PacNW. This will push its influence more over the Four Corners area. Monsoon moisture will still be present over the forecast area, and afternoon storms will still favor development over the high terrain near mid-day and early afternoon. Steering flow however will favor storms moving more south to southwesterly, lessening precipitation chances over the eastern plains Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 An area of SHRA/TS from near Socorro to Ruidoso, Roswell, and Clovis will continue drifting south while tapering off tonight. Elsewhere, isolated SHRA with patchy mid level cigs are likely to pop up from time to time then drift south thru sunrise. Another crop of SHRA/TS will develop over the high terrain by 1pm then move southward into nearby highlands and valleys. Direct hits may produce brief IFR cigs/vsbys in heavy rain. A few storms may be strong to severe over northeast NM where a backdoor cold front begins surging southwest by late day. Just about anywhere has a chance to see locally heavy rainfall Saturday. This continues thru the evening hours along the central mt chain and RGV. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next 7 to 10 days. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue each day through the middle of next week. The greatest coverage of storms with heavy rainfall is expected today thru Monday followed by a gradual decrease beginning Tuesday. Storm motion will be generally north to south between 10 and 20 mph with erratic and stationary storms possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 64 88 63 / 30 50 30 30 Dulce........................... 87 50 81 47 / 80 60 90 70 Cuba............................ 86 55 79 52 / 90 70 80 80 Gallup.......................... 90 55 84 53 / 70 70 80 50 El Morro........................ 83 56 78 54 / 80 80 90 80 Grants.......................... 87 58 80 56 / 80 80 80 80 Quemado......................... 87 57 81 56 / 90 80 90 90 Magdalena....................... 86 60 78 59 / 80 90 90 80 Datil........................... 83 56 77 55 / 90 80 90 80 Reserve......................... 90 55 84 54 / 90 80 90 90 Glenwood........................ 93 66 87 66 / 90 70 90 90 Chama........................... 78 48 73 44 / 80 60 90 80 Los Alamos...................... 82 59 75 57 / 80 80 90 80 Pecos........................... 81 55 70 53 / 80 80 90 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 45 73 41 / 90 80 90 90 Red River....................... 69 44 63 41 / 90 70 90 90 Angel Fire...................... 73 42 67 39 / 90 70 100 80 Taos............................ 84 51 77 47 / 80 70 90 80 Mora............................ 77 50 68 46 / 90 70 90 90 Espanola........................ 91 59 83 56 / 70 80 80 90 Santa Fe........................ 83 59 75 57 / 80 80 90 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 58 78 56 / 70 80 80 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 64 81 62 / 70 80 80 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 64 83 62 / 60 80 70 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 64 85 62 / 60 80 60 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 65 84 62 / 60 90 60 80 Belen........................... 94 64 85 61 / 70 80 60 80 Bernalillo...................... 93 64 85 62 / 60 80 70 80 Bosque Farms.................... 93 62 84 59 / 60 80 60 80 Corrales........................ 93 64 84 62 / 60 80 70 80 Los Lunas....................... 93 63 85 61 / 60 80 60 80 Placitas........................ 89 61 81 59 / 60 80 80 80 Rio Rancho...................... 92 65 84 62 / 60 80 70 80 Socorro......................... 95 66 86 64 / 70 90 70 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 57 74 55 / 70 80 80 80 Tijeras......................... 86 59 77 57 / 70 80 80 90 Edgewood........................ 86 56 75 53 / 70 80 80 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 54 75 52 / 70 80 80 80 Clines Corners.................. 81 54 71 51 / 70 80 90 80 Mountainair..................... 85 57 74 54 / 70 80 80 80 Gran Quivira.................... 86 57 74 54 / 80 80 80 80 Carrizozo....................... 89 62 80 59 / 80 80 80 80 Ruidoso......................... 80 55 70 54 / 80 80 90 80 Capulin......................... 79 54 68 49 / 70 70 90 70 Raton........................... 84 54 73 51 / 70 70 90 70 Springer........................ 86 56 75 52 / 70 70 90 80 Las Vegas....................... 80 54 70 51 / 80 70 90 90 Clayton......................... 87 60 74 57 / 40 50 80 60 Roy............................. 84 58 73 54 / 70 70 90 80 Conchas......................... 91 63 78 59 / 60 70 80 90 Santa Rosa...................... 89 62 76 57 / 60 70 80 90 Tucumcari....................... 92 63 79 58 / 30 60 70 80 Clovis.......................... 92 65 79 62 / 40 60 80 80 Portales........................ 92 65 80 62 / 40 60 70 70 Fort Sumner..................... 93 65 81 61 / 40 70 80 80 Roswell......................... 97 70 84 66 / 30 80 70 80 Picacho......................... 89 63 77 59 / 70 80 80 80 Elk............................. 85 58 74 55 / 80 70 90 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ206>208-210>224-226>233-237-239>241. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42