814
FXUS65 KABQ 160838
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Moisture is forecast to increase in northeastern areas of New
Mexico today, leading to more showers and storms there. A few
storms could even turn strong to severe with hail, gusty winds and
heavy downpours. Elsewhere, scattered storms will be possible,
mainly near the western high terrain and the Rio Grande valley
where temperatures will still be hot. Even more moisture will
arrive Wednesday through the latter half of the week, leading to
a more significantly active thunderstorm pattern each day. As
rain chances rise through this time, so will the chance for
locally heavy downpours and flash flooding. Temperatures should
lower a few degrees, running near to slightly below normal by the
end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The center of the 595dm H5 monsoon high will be centered over north-
central NM today. Skies will steadily clear through the morning
hours before today`s crop of afternoon storms begins to develop over
the western and northern high terrain by the noon to 1pm MDT hour.
Water vapor imagery shows a clear tongue of mid-level dry air
intruding into the southern half of the H5 high, mainly along and
south of I-40. This is evident on last evening`s 00Z ABQ sounding
showing 0.60" of PWAT. Numerical model guidance is picking up on
this and is showing a drying of the boundary layer through the early
afternoon most areas. Thunderstorm`s will have a difficult time
sustaining themselves as a result. The exception will be cells
developing over the Sangre de Cristo Mts tracking eastward over the
adjacent northeastern highlands and plains late in the day. Higher
moisture content and modest SBCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg coupled with 10-
20kts of bulk shear will allow these storm cells to be longer lived
than their slower moving counterparts along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley and Continental Divide. Small hail and gusty winds
will be the main concern with any of these cells over northeastern
NM with strong gusty winds being the main concern for cells over
western and northwestern NM.

Thunderstorm outflow from storms will continue the threat of erratic
gusty winds well into the evening hours mainly through the
northwestern half of the forecast area. Strong outflow from storms
over northeastern NM will spread south and west through the eastern
plains late evening and overnight, squeezing through the gaps of the
central mountain chain. Gusty easterly winds are expected at Santa
Fe and Albuquerque with gusts of 20 to 35 mph possible late night
into Wednesday morning. Additional moisture in the form of 50s Tds
will fill in behind boundary across eastern NM, reaching near 50F at
ABQ by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile the H5 high will elongate NW-SE
and recenter over the Four Corners area while a subtle mid-level
perturbation moves down the H5 high`s northeastern periphery over
north-central NM. It will be favorable setup for increased
convective initiation over the high terrain Wednesday afternoon
thanks to the aforementioned perturbation. Easterly upslope flow
along the central mountain chain will also aid in afternoon
thunderstorm generation. SBCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with
bulk shear of 25-35kts will allow for a severe thunderstorm risk
across the northeastern quadrant of the state Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Forecast PWATs rise to 0.90" to 1.00" at ABQ allowing
for a widespread heavy rain threat as well, enhancing the risk of
flash flooding especially over recent burn scars. Numerical model
guidance is showing a strong signal for storms developing over the
Continental Divide and northern mountains to produce outflow
boundaries that push into the middle Rio Grande Valley generating
late day and evening thunderstorm activity over the ABQ metro area.
Locally heavy rain producing flash flooding will be at a heightened
risk Wednesday afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch for flash
flooding will be issued with this forecast package, which will
include areas from Los Alamos to Las Vegas southward through the
Santa Fe and ABQ metros to Socorro to Ruidoso.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Above normal moisture (PWATs at or above 1.0 inch for central
areas upwards to 1.3 inch in eastern areas) will be in place
Thursday and ready to be utilized. After nocturnal convection
Wednesday night, it stands to reason lots of mid and high level
debris clouds could linger into Thursday, potentially hampering
insolation and instability in some areas. This may slow down
convective initiation, but by mid to late afternoon another
healthy crop of storms is expected to get underway. With a
southerly surface wind developing in most locations, southern
slopes and mountain faces could get the jump on convective
initiation. The upper high would still be west or southwest of the
Four Corners, generally carrying storms southward at a sluggish
pace. Some slightly drier air may filter down into the northern
mountains (PWATs of 0.75 to 1.0 inch), but otherwise most of the
eastern half of the state would remain primed with moisture (PWATs
of 1.1 to 1.4 inch). Another active evening would be on hand
Thursday as storms fill into central valleys and surrounding
areas.

Beginning on Friday, the upper high will start to move
northwestward, becoming relocated over the Great Basin this
weekend into early next week. Lighter flow aloft will remain over
the rest of the ConUS with a potential weak trough or low
circulation moving into the plains or perhaps midwestern states.
While the details of this subtle interior feature are still
muddled, the bottom line for NM will be northerly winds aloft with
moisture remaining entrenched over the state, particularly
central to eastern zones where above normal PWATs will stay put.
Synoptic models continue to project daily rounds of strong storms
dumping significant rainfall amounts, repetitively day-after-day,
initiating on the mountains in the afternoon and expanding into
adjacent valleys and plains through the evenings. The QPF
advertised is impressive, yet believable given the slow steering
flow and moisture profiles. The other additional trigger arriving
Saturday and lasting into Monday will be a synoptic east wind
pushing over much of the southern plains and NM. This would only
help storms to get going faster over the central mountain chain
and parts of the Continental Divide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Remnant shower activity over the northern third of NM will slowly
taper off tonight. Tuesday will start off with areawide VFR
conditions and light winds. The afternoon crop of storms will
favor development over the western and northern high terrain.
Steering flow will take these storms east off the Sangre de Cristo
Mts over the adjacent northeastern highlands and plains. Localized
MVFR/IFR conditions will accompany these storm cells, and PROB30s
are included at KSAF-KLVS-KTCC to reflect this. Thunderstorm
outflow winds will emanate from these cells, reaching far and wide
over the eastern plains Tuesday evening with an east canyon wind
likely to develop at KSAF and KABQ at the end of the TAF period.
Wind directions within the Rio Grande Valley from KSAF to KAEG and
KABQ will be tricky as these outflow gusts will compete with
each other resulting in rapidly changing wind directions between
the 00Z and 06Z hours before the east canyon wind is favored to
prevail later Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. High heat and
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will focus over the
western and northern high terrain today. An east canyon wind at
Santa Fe and Albuquerque is likely to develop tonight from
thunderstorm outflows originating in northeastern NM tonight. Daily
rounds of afternoon storms increase in coverage significantly
Wednesday and beyond as the monsoon high shifts westward. North to
south steering flow will take numerous afternoon storms southward
over adjacent lower elevations late day and evening each day.
Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially on recent burn
scars, will be the main threat each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  65  96  66 /   5   5  10  30
Dulce...........................  90  49  90  51 /  40  20  70  60
Cuba............................  90  58  88  55 /  30  30  80  70
Gallup..........................  92  57  91  58 /  30  30  60  60
El Morro........................  88  59  86  55 /  50  30  90  70
Grants..........................  91  60  89  58 /  40  30  80  70
Quemado.........................  89  59  89  57 /  50  40  90  80
Magdalena.......................  92  65  90  61 /  20  30  80  70
Datil...........................  88  59  87  56 /  40  30  90  70
Reserve.........................  93  56  94  55 /  60  30  90  70
Glenwood........................  96  68  98  65 /  80  20  90  70
Chama...........................  84  50  81  49 /  60  20  90  70
Los Alamos......................  88  62  82  59 /  50  40 100  70
Pecos...........................  89  59  82  55 /  40  40  90  70
Cerro/Questa....................  85  45  80  46 /  70  40 100  70
Red River.......................  76  45  71  45 /  80  40 100  70
Angel Fire......................  80  43  72  43 /  50  30 100  70
Taos............................  89  52  84  51 /  50  30 100  70
Mora............................  85  52  77  50 /  40  30 100  70
Espanola........................  95  60  91  59 /  30  40  80  70
Santa Fe........................  90  62  84  60 /  40  40  90  70
Santa Fe Airport................  94  62  87  58 /  30  30  90  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  69  92  63 /  20  40  80  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  68  94  65 /  10  30  60  70
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  68  97  60 /  10  30  50  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  69  94  64 /  10  30  60  70
Belen........................... 100  66  97  62 /  10  30  50  70
Bernalillo...................... 100  68  95  63 /  10  30  70  70
Bosque Farms.................... 100  65  96  59 /  10  30  50  70
Corrales........................ 100  68  96  62 /  10  30  70  70
Los Lunas....................... 100  66  97  61 /  10  30  50  70
Placitas........................  95  66  91  61 /  20  30  80  70
Rio Rancho......................  98  68  95  64 /  10  30  70  70
Socorro......................... 100  70 100  67 /  10  20  60  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  61  85  58 /  20  30  80  70
Tijeras.........................  93  63  88  60 /  20  30  80  70
Edgewood........................  93  59  87  57 /  20  30  80  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  58  88  55 /  20  30  80  60
Clines Corners..................  90  58  82  54 /  20  30  80  60
Mountainair.....................  92  59  88  57 /  20  30  70  60
Gran Quivira....................  93  60  89  57 /  20  20  70  60
Carrizozo.......................  94  67  93  63 /  10  20  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  86  60  84  55 /  20  10  70  50
Capulin.........................  87  55  75  54 /  70  70  90  60
Raton...........................  90  56  82  56 /  60  50  90  60
Springer........................  93  57  83  57 /  50  40  90  60
Las Vegas.......................  88  56  78  54 /  40  30  90  70
Clayton.........................  95  62  82  60 /  50  50  60  50
Roy.............................  92  60  82  59 /  50  50  80  70
Conchas......................... 100  65  89  63 /  20  60  70  60
Santa Rosa......................  97  64  87  62 /  10  30  60  70
Tucumcari....................... 100  65  89  63 /  10  40  50  60
Clovis..........................  98  68  92  65 /   5  30  50  60
Portales........................  99  68  93  65 /   5  20  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  99  68  93  65 /   5  30  40  60
Roswell......................... 102  72 100  71 /   0   5  20  40
Picacho.........................  95  65  93  63 /   5   5  40  50
Elk.............................  91  60  91  59 /  10   5  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ219.

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for NMZ211>215-217>226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24