Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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111 FXUS65 KABQ 042111 CCA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 311 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over southern, central, and eastern areas Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. After dry weather in most places Sunday, a moist backdoor front will surge into the state Sunday night and Monday increasing the coverage and rainfall intensity of thunderstorms again Sunday night through Wednesday. Some thunderstorms may turn severe each afternoon and evening Friday through Wednesday with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall. In addition, the backdoor front will produce a strong east wind below canyons opening into the central valley Sunday night into Monday with the potential for peak wind gusts around 60 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque, for southeast wind gusts up to 45 mph in Santa Fe, and for east wind gusts around 45 mph in Carrizozo. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A backdoor front is bringing moisture westward into the eastern plains and is forecast to progress west into the RGV overnight, resulting in a gusty east canyon wind with gusts to between 35-40mph likely at KABQ. The combination of surface convergence from the front and daytime heating has triggered a few storms over Roosevelt and far eastern Chaves Counties this afternoon. The latest CAMs show these storms drifting east out of our area through the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, drying continues under the influence of ridging aloft across western and portions of central NM, with dewpoint temperatures currently 15-25 degrees less than 24hrs ago. The latest CAMs continue to show a round of elevated convection developing across the northeast plains/highlands and northern portions of the east central plains, which could bring soaking rains. The backdoor front is modeled by the NAM to stop westward progress on Friday between the RGV and Continental Divide, but the moisture depth will likely be too shallow to produce convection west of the central mountain chain. Different story on Friday along/east of the central mountain chain, where low level moisture will be sufficient to support deep convection. However, will start the day off with low stratus and easterly upslope flow keeping things on the cool side, leading to later than normal convective initiation. Both the latest GFS and NAM show generous qpf near the Sacramento Complex late Friday afternoon/evening, so will issue a Flash Flood Watch for the South Central Mountains. Any convection that develops late Friday across northeast NM could become severe given 0-6km bulk shear modeled at 35-40kts. The GFS is more bullish holding onto convection overnight Friday night, while the NAM stabilizes much quicker during the evening hours. Will hold onto chances PoPs overnight Friday as a hedge. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A shortwave trough in northwest flow aloft will clip northeast New Mexico on Friday night, then additional perturbations on Saturday afternoon and evening, keeping thunderstorms going over southern, central, and eastern areas. Some storms may turn severe with large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Drier air will filter over most of the forecast area from the northwest on Sunday, putting a damper on convection. An exception will be along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where a moist backdoor front is forecast to arrive and trigger showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Then, storms are forecast over more of eastern NM as the front makes further progress Sunday night. Sunday night into Monday, the moist backdoor front will surge through gaps in the central mountain chain with a strong east wind below canyons opening into the central valley. The potential exists for peak wind gusts around 60 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque, for southeast wind gusts up to 45 mph in Santa Fe, and for east wind gusts around 45 mph in Carrizozo. The moisture increase with the front, and a persistent, relatively moist, low level return flow out of the southeast, will result in an uptick in thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity over all but the Four Corners area Monday through Wednesday. There will be an increased risk of flash flooding on these days, especially below recent burn scars. Further, north and northwest flow aloft around a mid level high pressure system centered over the Great Basin will probably enhance shear enough for some thunderstorms to turn severe each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across western NM, but a backdoor front will bring increasing moisture and areas of low stratus to eastern NM overnight into Friday morning. MVFR cigs are forecast to develop at KLVS and KTCC overnight, with low probabilities for IFR conditions. Improvement Friday morning will be slow. The backdoor front will create a gusty east canyon/gap wind at KABQ and KSAF overnight, but winds are forecast to remain below KABQ Airport Weather Warning threshold at this time. Isolated convection will impact the southeast and northeast periphery of our area this afternoon/evening, but forecast to remain away from our TAF sites. KROW would be the most likely of the group to be impacted by convection this afternoon, but very low probability. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A backdoor front will bring moisture and chances for wetting storms westward to the central mountain chain tonight through the weekend, with potential for burn scar flash flooding. Western NM will be hot, dry and unstable from Friday through the weekend, with a few hours of critical fire weather conditions likely across northwest NM Sunday due to deep layer mixing of stronger northwest winds aloft. A stronger backdoor front is forecast to race southwest across the area Sunday night, recharging moisture and setting the stage for an active early to mid week period with daily rounds of wetting storms and the potential for burn scar flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 92 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 86 43 87 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 50 85 50 86 / 0 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 47 91 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 54 87 52 86 / 0 0 5 5 Grants.......................... 49 89 49 89 / 0 0 5 10 Quemado......................... 54 89 53 88 / 0 0 10 20 Magdalena....................... 61 88 62 89 / 0 10 20 30 Datil........................... 57 88 57 87 / 0 10 20 20 Reserve......................... 54 95 53 93 / 5 0 20 30 Glenwood........................ 66 99 67 96 / 10 10 20 40 Chama........................... 45 81 45 81 / 0 5 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 60 82 56 83 / 0 20 20 20 Pecos........................... 56 78 55 83 / 20 30 40 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 79 41 81 / 10 20 30 20 Red River....................... 44 70 42 73 / 20 30 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 40 73 40 76 / 20 30 40 30 Taos............................ 49 82 50 84 / 5 20 30 10 Mora............................ 50 75 49 81 / 20 30 40 30 Espanola........................ 58 88 57 90 / 0 10 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 59 82 57 84 / 5 20 40 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 85 57 87 / 0 10 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 88 63 91 / 5 10 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 90 62 93 / 0 5 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 92 62 95 / 0 5 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 91 63 94 / 0 5 20 10 Belen........................... 60 94 60 95 / 0 5 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 64 92 62 94 / 0 5 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 60 92 59 94 / 0 5 20 10 Corrales........................ 62 92 62 95 / 0 5 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 60 93 60 95 / 0 5 20 10 Placitas........................ 64 88 61 90 / 5 10 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 64 91 62 94 / 0 5 20 10 Socorro......................... 66 96 66 96 / 0 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 82 56 85 / 10 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 60 85 58 87 / 10 10 30 20 Edgewood........................ 58 84 55 87 / 5 20 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 84 54 89 / 5 20 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 55 75 53 82 / 10 20 40 30 Mountainair..................... 57 83 55 86 / 10 20 30 30 Gran Quivira.................... 57 84 55 87 / 5 20 40 40 Carrizozo....................... 64 87 62 89 / 10 30 40 60 Ruidoso......................... 57 77 56 81 / 20 60 50 70 Capulin......................... 53 74 52 80 / 30 30 40 30 Raton........................... 55 79 54 86 / 20 30 30 20 Springer........................ 57 79 55 87 / 20 20 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 73 53 81 / 30 20 50 30 Clayton......................... 57 78 58 85 / 40 20 40 30 Roy............................. 58 74 56 83 / 50 20 50 30 Conchas......................... 62 81 61 90 / 60 30 60 30 Santa Rosa...................... 61 79 60 86 / 30 30 50 30 Tucumcari....................... 62 80 60 89 / 60 30 50 30 Clovis.......................... 64 79 62 89 / 40 30 50 30 Portales........................ 64 82 63 90 / 30 30 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 65 82 63 89 / 30 20 50 30 Roswell......................... 72 89 69 94 / 20 30 40 30 Picacho......................... 64 83 62 88 / 20 40 40 50 Elk............................. 60 82 58 86 / 20 50 50 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...11