205
FXUS65 KABQ 142344 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Very hot temperatures will persist through Tuesday as a strong area
of high pressure settles over NM. This is a day or two longer than
previously forecast since the area of high pressure is more robust
than expected. The coverage of showers and storms will be mostly
confined to the high terrain and nearby highlands as well through
Tuesday. However, a significant moisture surge is still advertised
to arrive Tuesday night with a major increase in storms Wednesday
through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, small
hail, lightning strikes, and flash flooding will be possible just
about anywhere later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monsoon high center, currently over the Four Corners, continues to
result in a northeast to southwest steering flow over northern NM.
Enough dry air aloft continues to be entrained in the clockwise
circulation around the high center from the Midwest for another
rather meager crop of afternoon showers and storms primarily over
the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo mountains. A lot like yesterday, it
will take an an outflow boundary from the Sangre de Cristos to get
isolated showers and thunderstorms going over the Jemez late this
afternoon through early evening. Why? The Jemez are closer to the
monsoon high center where sinking air aloft results in a more robust
stable layer just above mountain top level. This relatively strong
stable layer along with the mid level dry air advection, will result
in an early dissipation of showers and storms once again this
evening. Subtle changes to the flow aloft based on the monsoon
high`s shape are forecast for Monday. Slightly more mid level
moisture is also forecast to work all the way around the monsoon
high and back into the northeast quarter of NM for slightly more
activity there Monday afternoon. Additionally, the flow aloft in
northeast NM becomes northwesterly on Monday while it remains
northerly and westerly elsewhere. By Monday night, an unseasonably
deep closed low over western Ontario is forecast to flatten/elongate
the monsoon high further, such that the flow aloft over northeast NM
becomes stronger northwesterly Monday night. This relatively slight
change in the flow aloft as well as slightly weakening the high,
sets the sage for a very active monsoon surge of sorts in the form
of low level moisture moving in from the northeast and east
beginning Tuesday. Another hot day for the middle RGV is in store
Monday as well and another heat advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Forecast models continue delaying the onset of higher rainfall
chances with cooler temperatures now until Wednesday. This has
been a trend the past two days as models are struggling to weaken
the upper high and retrograde it westward into eastern AZ. As a
result, very hot temps continue into Tuesday with Heat Advisories
possible again in the ABQ metro and perhaps Farmington. Moisture
is still shown seeping into northeastern NM which allows for the
greater risk of locally heavy rainfall over the Sangre de Cristo
Mts. The greatest potential for a Flash Flood Watch Tuesday will
be for the HPCC burn scar.

By Tuesday night, an upper level shortwave is still shown moving
southeast off the Front Range with a very moist surface boundary
surging southwest across eastern NM. An area of strong storms is
possible along the boundary over northeast NM Tuesday night. The
upper level shortwave helps deflect the upper high westward while
low level moisture surges west thru the RGV onto the Cont Divide
Wednesday morning. Above normal moisture over the region with
north/south steering flow thru the weekend will allow monsoon
convection to develop over the high terrain each afternoon then
move into nearby highlands and valleys on convective outflow thru
the evening. Predawn nocturnal convection may even fire up in a
few areas as occurs during periods of deepest monsoon moisture.

Flash flooding is possible each day, especially over burn scars,
urban drainages, and areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy
rain. WPC 7-day QPF amounts are very impressive with 2-4" along
the central mt chain and nearby highlands with 0.5-1.0" over the
rest of the lower terrain. Locally higher amounts by week`s end
could exceed 6", but there will still be some folks who miss out
almost entirely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across
northern NM through the evening, and most storms should diminish
around or shortly after sunset. Until then, storms will have the
potential to produce erratic wind gust to 35kt. Locally heavy
rainfall is also possible across NE NM. After a quiet night,
another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday.
Storms will again favor northern and western NM, though there will
be an increase in activity across northeast NM as compared with
today. Gusty outflows, small hail and locally heavy rainfall will
be possible with this activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday and Tuesday will remain hot and relatively dry before major
changes arrive late day Tuesday through the week and into next
weekend. Isolated thunderstorms return Monday, favoring the northern
mountains and northeast quarter. Storm motion will be to west  Low
level moisture begins increasing from the northeast and east Monday
night into Tuesday, setting the stage for a very active thunderstorm
week ahead. Wednesday through next weekend, numerous to widespread
strong thunderstorms are forecast for the vast majority of the
forecast area. Central and eastern areas are favored for the
heaviest rainfall, including the HPCC and Ruidoso area burn scars.
Western NM still has excellent chances for storms, but this area is
closer to a now pumped up monsoon high over the Great Basin and will
have to contend with more atmospheric stability. The flash flooding
threat peaks Wednesday through next weekend with debris flows once
again a distinct possibility each day for the Ruidoso area burn
scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  98  65  97 /  10  20   5   5
Dulce...........................  51  94  51  93 /  20  30  20  50
Cuba............................  59  92  59  92 /  20  20  40  40
Gallup..........................  54  94  56  93 /  20  20  30  30
El Morro........................  53  90  58  88 /  20  30  60  60
Grants..........................  58  93  59  92 /  10  30  50  60
Quemado.........................  58  91  57  91 /  20  50  70  80
Magdalena.......................  64  92  65  93 /   5  20  30  60
Datil...........................  59  89  59  89 /   5  40  40  70
Reserve.........................  55  96  56  96 /  30  60  60  80
Glenwood........................  65  98  66  99 /  30  70  60  80
Chama...........................  51  87  51  85 /  20  50  30  70
Los Alamos......................  65  89  65  87 /  10  40  30  70
Pecos...........................  61  90  61  90 /  10  40  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  49  88  47  87 /  30  60  40  80
Red River.......................  49  79  48  77 /  20  60  40  80
Angel Fire......................  41  82  41  80 /  20  60  30  80
Taos............................  54  92  53  90 /  20  40  30  70
Mora............................  55  88  54  85 /  10  50  30  70
Espanola........................  62  97  62  96 /  10  20  30  50
Santa Fe........................  65  92  64  90 /  10  30  40  70
Santa Fe Airport................  63  95  63  93 /  10  20  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  98  71  98 /  10  20  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  99  69  99 /   5   5  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  67 101  67 101 /   5   5  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68 100  70 100 /   5   5  30  20
Belen...........................  64 100  66 100 /   5   5  30  20
Bernalillo......................  68 100  67 100 /  10  10  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  64 100  65 100 /   5   5  30  20
Corrales........................  68 101  68 101 /   5   5  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  66 100  67 100 /   5   5  30  20
Placitas........................  66  96  67  96 /  10  10  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  68 100  69 100 /   5   5  30  30
Socorro.........................  67 102  70 103 /   0   5  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  91  64  91 /   5  20  30  50
Tijeras.........................  61  94  61  95 /   5  10  30  50
Edgewood........................  56  94  58  94 /   5  20  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  95  58  95 /   5  10  30  40
Clines Corners..................  59  91  60  88 /   0  20  20  50
Mountainair.....................  59  92  60  93 /   0  10  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  59  92  62  93 /   0  20  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  65  96  67  96 /   0  10  20  40
Ruidoso.........................  58  87  61  87 /   0  10  10  40
Capulin.........................  61  90  58  85 /  10  40  30  70
Raton...........................  59  94  58  90 /  20  30  20  70
Springer........................  59  95  59  90 /  20  30  20  60
Las Vegas.......................  59  90  57  85 /   5  30  30  60
Clayton.........................  69 100  66  93 /   0  10  20  30
Roy.............................  64  95  62  90 /   5  20  20  40
Conchas.........................  66 101  67  98 /   0  10  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  64  98  66  95 /   0  10  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  66 101  68  98 /   0   0   5  10
Clovis..........................  67  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10
Portales........................  67 100  69 100 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  66 100  69 100 /   0   0   5  10
Roswell.........................  71 102  72 102 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  63  96  66  97 /   0   5   5  20
Elk.............................  59  93  61  94 /   0   5   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34