886
FXUS65 KVEF 152102
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV
202 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and afternoon breezes will continue
through Friday, along with near normal temperatures. Mohave,
Lincoln, and Clark counties will see monsoonal moisture and chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend.
Farther west, continued dry and breezy conditions will lead to
elevated fire risk over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Mild weather and near seasonal temperatures are on tap for the
region today. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds pick up
across the region tomorrow as an upper-level trough begins to dig
along the West Coast. With a high pressure ridge off to our east,
the eastern portions of our forecast area will see the upper-
level flow becomes more southerly, opening the door for monsoonal
moisture to begin creeping back into northwestern Arizona,
southern Nevada, and the eastern Mojave Desert. This moisture will
help to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
eastern half of our forecast area over through Monday. The return
of anomalous moisture will also bring an increased risk for flash
flooding, especially across the eastern portions of Mohave County.


While the eastern half of the area sees increasing moisture and
chances for precipitation, the western half of our forecast area
will remain dry. In addition to being dry, it will also be windy as
southerly to southwesterly winds pick up across the area leading to
elevated fire weather conditions (see FIRE WEATHER section for more
details).

Forecast confidence begins decreasing on Tuesday due to uncertainty
regarding how the upper-level trough off the coast will interact
with the ridge to our east, which will dictate how moisture ebbs
and flows across the area. Temperatures will continue to remain a
few degrees above normal through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south-southwest winds are
expected this afternoon. Wind will be  15KT to 20KT are expected
with only a 10% chance for gusts over 20KT this afternoon. Gusts
will end around sunset and winds will drop below 8KT after 04Z.
Light diurnal winds will persist overnight through Friday morning
before breezy south winds return Friday late morning and continue
through the afternoon. Low chance for southeast preceding the south-
southwest winds between 17Z through 20Z, however winds speeds will
remain around 8KT and the direction would favor 160 or 170 degrees.
Wind gusts Friday will be slightly stronger than today with a 30%
chance for gusts over 20KT Friday afternoon. Mostly clear skies will
prevail through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south to southwest winds are expected across
southern Nevada into western Arizona this afternoon with winds
gusting to 15-20KT. Further west, winds follow typical wind trends
and remain at 10KT or less. Diurnal wind patterns will set up for
tonight through Friday morning before breezy south to southwest
winds develop across the region late Friday morning and afternoon.
No significant clouds or weather is expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures are
expected across the region today. Breezy southerly to southwesterly
winds will begin picking up tomorrow across the western portions of
our forecast area. Dry conditions will persist for the western half
of our area with winds increasing further over the weekend. These
winds combined with afternoon relative humidities around 10% to 15%
and dry fuels will result in critical fire weather conditions across
Esmeralda and Nye counties in southern Nevada. Winds will drop off
and relative humidities will recover during the overnight hours from
Saturday into Sunday before returning again on Sunday afternoon. Dry
and breezy conditions are also expected across western Inyo County
over the weekend, but given that fuels above 4,000 feet are not
critical we have decided to hold off on issuing any fire weather
products at this time. Meanwhile in the eastern half of our forecast
area, monsoonal moisture will begin to creep back in on Friday. This
influx of moisture will bring increased chance for showers and
thunderstorms to northwestern Arizona, southern Nevada, and the
eastern Mojave Desert over the weekend. Heavy rain capable of
resulting in flash flooding, variable gusty outflow winds, and
lightning will be the primary threats with any storms that develop
over the weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Nickerson

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