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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
886 FXUS65 KVEF 152102 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV 202 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and afternoon breezes will continue through Friday, along with near normal temperatures. Mohave, Lincoln, and Clark counties will see monsoonal moisture and chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend. Farther west, continued dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire risk over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...through Wednesday. Mild weather and near seasonal temperatures are on tap for the region today. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds pick up across the region tomorrow as an upper-level trough begins to dig along the West Coast. With a high pressure ridge off to our east, the eastern portions of our forecast area will see the upper- level flow becomes more southerly, opening the door for monsoonal moisture to begin creeping back into northwestern Arizona, southern Nevada, and the eastern Mojave Desert. This moisture will help to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of our forecast area over through Monday. The return of anomalous moisture will also bring an increased risk for flash flooding, especially across the eastern portions of Mohave County. While the eastern half of the area sees increasing moisture and chances for precipitation, the western half of our forecast area will remain dry. In addition to being dry, it will also be windy as southerly to southwesterly winds pick up across the area leading to elevated fire weather conditions (see FIRE WEATHER section for more details). Forecast confidence begins decreasing on Tuesday due to uncertainty regarding how the upper-level trough off the coast will interact with the ridge to our east, which will dictate how moisture ebbs and flows across the area. Temperatures will continue to remain a few degrees above normal through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south-southwest winds are expected this afternoon. Wind will be 15KT to 20KT are expected with only a 10% chance for gusts over 20KT this afternoon. Gusts will end around sunset and winds will drop below 8KT after 04Z. Light diurnal winds will persist overnight through Friday morning before breezy south winds return Friday late morning and continue through the afternoon. Low chance for southeast preceding the south- southwest winds between 17Z through 20Z, however winds speeds will remain around 8KT and the direction would favor 160 or 170 degrees. Wind gusts Friday will be slightly stronger than today with a 30% chance for gusts over 20KT Friday afternoon. Mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy south to southwest winds are expected across southern Nevada into western Arizona this afternoon with winds gusting to 15-20KT. Further west, winds follow typical wind trends and remain at 10KT or less. Diurnal wind patterns will set up for tonight through Friday morning before breezy south to southwest winds develop across the region late Friday morning and afternoon. No significant clouds or weather is expected through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures are expected across the region today. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will begin picking up tomorrow across the western portions of our forecast area. Dry conditions will persist for the western half of our area with winds increasing further over the weekend. These winds combined with afternoon relative humidities around 10% to 15% and dry fuels will result in critical fire weather conditions across Esmeralda and Nye counties in southern Nevada. Winds will drop off and relative humidities will recover during the overnight hours from Saturday into Sunday before returning again on Sunday afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions are also expected across western Inyo County over the weekend, but given that fuels above 4,000 feet are not critical we have decided to hold off on issuing any fire weather products at this time. Meanwhile in the eastern half of our forecast area, monsoonal moisture will begin to creep back in on Friday. This influx of moisture will bring increased chance for showers and thunderstorms to northwestern Arizona, southern Nevada, and the eastern Mojave Desert over the weekend. Heavy rain capable of resulting in flash flooding, variable gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be the primary threats with any storms that develop over the weekend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter