Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
704 FLUS44 KTSA 041828 HWOTSA Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 128 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 128 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon and Evening... ...Dangerous Heat and Humidity Continues Today... This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...After 4 PM Eastern Oklahoma...After 6 PM Northwest Arkansas HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD. RISK...Limited. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...After 4 PM. DANGEROUS HEAT. RISK...Significant. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas. DISCUSSION... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop mid to late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a surface boundary moves into the region and a cold front approaches from the northwest. These storms will spread east and southeast over the region through this evening, with additional shower and storm potential overnight as the cold front pushes through. The combination of increasing instability and max heating will increase severe potentials, with damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph the primary threat and a secondary threat of hail up to the size of quarters. The severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening as storms move farther into southeast Oklahoma and west- central Arkansas. Also this afternoon, dangerous heat and humidity will continue into this evening with heat indices in the 105 to 114 degree range. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in effect until 9 pm for all Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. SATURDAY...No Hazards. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Decreased heat and humidity are expected behind the cold front on Friday. At least low thunderstorm chances will exist over the holiday weekend into the early to middle part of next week as a series of upper level disturbances move out of the central Plains. There is some potential for a thunderstorm complex to impact portions of the area Sunday night. Timing and details will continue to be refined in the coming days. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT... Heat related illness will remain a significant concern today. Additionally, thunderstorms could impact some outdoor Fourth of July activities. Portions of the heat advisory/warning will likely be cancelled early as cooler outflow develops from the expected thunderstorm activity. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information. $$