962
FXUS64 KTSA 111122
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have steadily increased early this
morning across western and central Oklahoma, a trend that will
continue through the morning as they also shift eastward. Heavy
rainfall remains the main concern today, with current mesoanalysis
showing 2 inch precipitable water values across much of eastern
Oklahoma and instability levels supporting thunderstorms. With
widespread rainfall and plenty of cloud cover today, expect well
below normal high temperatures, along with a southwest to
northeast oriented gradient in them based on the timing of the
showers/storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another round of evening and overnight thunderstorms are expected
tonight into early Monday morning, focused across the northern
half of the forecast area. Locally heavy rain remains a concern,
with the axis shifted north and east of where it should be during
the day today.

Upper level high pressure will expand across the forecast area
Monday and into mid week, forcing the main precipitation chances
the north and bringing heat and humidity back to the region. Dew
points should be high - well into the 70s - during this period
due to the rainfall expected today and tonight and combined with
above normal air temperatures, will lead to dangerous heat index
values for much of next week. Heat headlines should be expected,
including potential for warnings.

An upper level trough moving through the central United States
Thursday and into Friday will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms and also potential for slightly cooler
temperatures. Any kind of minor cooldown looks to be short-lived,
however, as the ridge expands northward for the weekend, with
temperatures increasing accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Periodic RA/TSRA impacts- MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected at all
sites into early afternoon at all sites. This activity will shift
east of the TAF sites at that time. Additional PROB30 groups will
be added to the AR sites after 08z, and will include MVFR cigs
and vsby restrictions. Outside of TSRA impacts, VFR TAF elements
will prevail at all sites during the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  73  93  75 /  90  50  20  10
FSM   83  71  92  74 /  60  20  30   0
MLC   85  74  95  75 /  70  20  20   0
BVO   80  69  92  70 /  80  50  20  20
FYV   80  67  89  70 /  80  50  50  10
BYV   79  66  89  69 /  70  60  60  10
MKO   82  71  92  73 /  80  40  30  10
MIO   79  68  90  69 /  70  80  40  20
F10   85  72  93  74 /  90  30  20   0
HHW   92  73  96  75 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23