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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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962 FXUS64 KTSA 111122 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have steadily increased early this morning across western and central Oklahoma, a trend that will continue through the morning as they also shift eastward. Heavy rainfall remains the main concern today, with current mesoanalysis showing 2 inch precipitable water values across much of eastern Oklahoma and instability levels supporting thunderstorms. With widespread rainfall and plenty of cloud cover today, expect well below normal high temperatures, along with a southwest to northeast oriented gradient in them based on the timing of the showers/storms. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another round of evening and overnight thunderstorms are expected tonight into early Monday morning, focused across the northern half of the forecast area. Locally heavy rain remains a concern, with the axis shifted north and east of where it should be during the day today. Upper level high pressure will expand across the forecast area Monday and into mid week, forcing the main precipitation chances the north and bringing heat and humidity back to the region. Dew points should be high - well into the 70s - during this period due to the rainfall expected today and tonight and combined with above normal air temperatures, will lead to dangerous heat index values for much of next week. Heat headlines should be expected, including potential for warnings. An upper level trough moving through the central United States Thursday and into Friday will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms and also potential for slightly cooler temperatures. Any kind of minor cooldown looks to be short-lived, however, as the ridge expands northward for the weekend, with temperatures increasing accordingly. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Periodic RA/TSRA impacts- MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected at all sites into early afternoon at all sites. This activity will shift east of the TAF sites at that time. Additional PROB30 groups will be added to the AR sites after 08z, and will include MVFR cigs and vsby restrictions. Outside of TSRA impacts, VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites during the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 73 93 75 / 90 50 20 10 FSM 83 71 92 74 / 60 20 30 0 MLC 85 74 95 75 / 70 20 20 0 BVO 80 69 92 70 / 80 50 20 20 FYV 80 67 89 70 / 80 50 50 10 BYV 79 66 89 69 / 70 60 60 10 MKO 82 71 92 73 / 80 40 30 10 MIO 79 68 90 69 / 70 80 40 20 F10 85 72 93 74 / 90 30 20 0 HHW 92 73 96 75 / 40 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...23