405
FXUS64 KTSA 120843
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
343 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected and will
continue moving east and southeast through the morning hours, with
most of the precipitation exiting the area by around midday.
Current trends suggest the heaviest rainfall over the next few
hours may overlap areas where heavy rain fell Sunday morning, so
will need to keep a close eye on the flooding potential, with
Muskogee county potentially most at risk based on current trends.

We may see a bit more sunshine this afternoon than we did Sunday,
but confidence is low given the high moisture content. Have
lowered afternoon high temperatures from the NBM closer to the
GFS/NAM MOS numbers, with most locations remaining in the 80s
again today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Yet another round of convection appears poised to affect parts of
the area late tonight into Tuesday morning, but this time it
appears the better chances will be displaced to the north and east
from where the current heaviest rains are. Far northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas will see the highest rain chances. More
sunshine Tuesday will allow most places to warm into the 90s, with
afternoon heat index values likely exceeding 105 in some places.

Wednesday looks to remain dry as an upper ridge dominates our
weather. Temperatures will likely climb even hotter that day, but
recent rains will likely keep readings below their full potential.

The upper ridge gets shoved south Thursday and Friday as an upper
trough passes to our north allowing a cold front to sag south into
our area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and
Thursday night with this front and temperatures may be slightly
lower across the northern part of our area.

The upper ridge looks to retrograde west over the weekend. The NBM
keeps our area dry, but confidence is low given the expected upper
air pattern, and it is possible that pops may eventually be needed
and that temperatures may not be as hot as forecast. We will just
have to wait and see on this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

RA/TSRA chances will begin increasing across the NE OK after 06z
and AR sites between 09-12z, Storm chances to end around 15z
across the NE OK sites and around 18z across the AR sites. Low
MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in periods of thunder can be expected
during this time, with MVFR cigs improving to VFR categories
during the morning at the NE OK sites, and by mid afternoon at the
AR sites. Coverage further south appears limited, so will just
include VCTS at KMLC for several hours this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  72  94  78 /  50  30  30   0
FSM   83  72  95  76 /  80  20  30   0
MLC   87  73  96  77 /  60  10  20   0
BVO   86  70  92  74 /  50  40  40   0
FYV   81  68  90  72 /  90  30  50  10
BYV   82  68  89  70 /  90  40  60  10
MKO   85  71  94  74 /  80  20  30   0
MIO   84  69  90  72 /  90  50  60  10
F10   87  72  95  75 /  60  10  20   0
HHW   89  73  97  77 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...23