846
FXUS64 KTSA 060424
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1124 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next
week with higher chances for the first half of the week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms will
be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and      gusty
winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
toward the latter half of next week, with a front possible by the
following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Pattern remains similar through Sunday with weak troughing remaining
across the local region coincident with a plume of deeper moisture.
Guidance does suggest slightly higher coverage of precip Sunday
afternoon compared to Saturday especially across NW AR. Temps remain
near persistence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper ridge is forecast to remain centered over the western CONUS
through the upcoming week. The local area will remain on the
periphery of the ridge influence while also largely displaced from
the stronger flow across the central and northern states. Periodic
waves will pass to the north with the southern extent of each wave
likely increasing daily precip chances locally. Additionally the
continued presence of ample moisture and daytime heating amidst an
unstable and uncapped airmass will offer another source of daily
precip chances. This pattern appear likely to persist through the
work week. Temperatures and afternoon heat index values are forecast
to remain near seasonal normals. A slightly trend toward warmer and
drier conditions is possible by late in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast for much of
the TAF period across the CWA. A few isolated showers may linger
into this evening, otherwise shower/storm chances increase again
Sunday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Additional mid clouds are forecast to redevelop during the day
Sunday, which could start out as a brief period of MVFR ceilings.
Besides these potential MVFR ceilings Sunday morning, VFR
conditions are forecast for the TAF period. Winds through the
period start out southerly, become more variable tonight and
return out of the south southwest Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  73  90 /  20  20  10  30
FSM   75  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
MLC   72  90  71  90 /  20  20  10  30
BVO   71  91  70  90 /  10  20  20  20
FYV   72  90  71  89 /  30  30  20  30
BYV   72  89  70  91 /  30  40  20  40
MKO   72  89  71  89 /  20  20  10  30
MIO   72  90  71  89 /  20  40  20  30
F10   72  88  71  88 /  20  20  10  30
HHW   71  91  71  91 /  20  20   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20