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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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405 FXUS64 KTSA 120843 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 343 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected and will continue moving east and southeast through the morning hours, with most of the precipitation exiting the area by around midday. Current trends suggest the heaviest rainfall over the next few hours may overlap areas where heavy rain fell Sunday morning, so will need to keep a close eye on the flooding potential, with Muskogee county potentially most at risk based on current trends. We may see a bit more sunshine this afternoon than we did Sunday, but confidence is low given the high moisture content. Have lowered afternoon high temperatures from the NBM closer to the GFS/NAM MOS numbers, with most locations remaining in the 80s again today. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Yet another round of convection appears poised to affect parts of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning, but this time it appears the better chances will be displaced to the north and east from where the current heaviest rains are. Far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will see the highest rain chances. More sunshine Tuesday will allow most places to warm into the 90s, with afternoon heat index values likely exceeding 105 in some places. Wednesday looks to remain dry as an upper ridge dominates our weather. Temperatures will likely climb even hotter that day, but recent rains will likely keep readings below their full potential. The upper ridge gets shoved south Thursday and Friday as an upper trough passes to our north allowing a cold front to sag south into our area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and Thursday night with this front and temperatures may be slightly lower across the northern part of our area. The upper ridge looks to retrograde west over the weekend. The NBM keeps our area dry, but confidence is low given the expected upper air pattern, and it is possible that pops may eventually be needed and that temperatures may not be as hot as forecast. We will just have to wait and see on this. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 RA/TSRA chances will begin increasing across the NE OK after 06z and AR sites between 09-12z, Storm chances to end around 15z across the NE OK sites and around 18z across the AR sites. Low MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in periods of thunder can be expected during this time, with MVFR cigs improving to VFR categories during the morning at the NE OK sites, and by mid afternoon at the AR sites. Coverage further south appears limited, so will just include VCTS at KMLC for several hours this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 86 72 94 78 / 50 30 30 0 FSM 83 72 95 76 / 80 20 30 0 MLC 87 73 96 77 / 60 10 20 0 BVO 86 70 92 74 / 50 40 40 0 FYV 81 68 90 72 / 90 30 50 10 BYV 82 68 89 70 / 90 40 60 10 MKO 85 71 94 74 / 80 20 30 0 MIO 84 69 90 72 / 90 50 60 10 F10 87 72 95 75 / 60 10 20 0 HHW 89 73 97 77 / 30 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...23