661
FXUS64 KTSA 160507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Weak front currently extends from south central KS into SW OK
with a plume of elevated moisture and isolated convection
remaining draped across across NE OK. Guidance remains in good
agreement in scattered storms developing along the frontal
boundary and also expanding within the mid level moist axis as the
approaching mid level passes the region through the evening.
Effective shear values support some stronger multicell to brief
supercell structure and the strongest storms will be capable of
both hail and locally damaging downburst winds. Storm coverage is
likely to peak by mid evening with a gradual decrease while
focusing more eastward within the strengthening overnight low
level jet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Dangerous heat index / wet bulb globe temps are likely to continue
tomorrow. Uncertainties are somewhat higher tomorrow regarding
temp and dewpoint trends pending the coverage and duration of
tonight`s convection. A weak sfc boundary is likely to align
across SE OK by mid afternoon and isolated storms are possible in
vicinity of this boundary. Additional storms are expected to
develop across KS and spread southeastward into NE OK by late
afternoon or early evening. This storms will be accompanied by a
stronger corridor of winds aloft and are likely to maintain a risk
of severe weather as they spread southeastward into E OK / NW AR.
As the severe risk wanes by late evening, the developing low
level jet will be orthogonal to the remnant cold pool and there is
potential for a localized area of heavier rainfall totals to
develop through Saturday morning.

Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend and
additional heat advisories and/or warnings may be needed.
However, the general trend should be for high temps to cool
slightly as the upper ridge axis shifts more westward. This may
also allow slightly drier air to spread into parts of the region
while also maintaining low chances for daily showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the day Friday, with the
chances of any lingering storms affecting a TAF site too low to
include in the forecast. Additional scattered storms are expected
to affect the area Friday evening, with potential ceiling and
visibility reductions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  99  75 /  20  30  10  10
FSM  100  78  99  78 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   99  76  99  76 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   98  70  98  70 /  20  50  10  10
FYV   98  72  96  72 /  20  40  30  10
BYV   98  70  94  69 /  20  50  30  10
MKO   98  75  97  75 /  20  30  20  10
MIO   97  70  94  70 /  20  60  20  10
F10   99  75  99  74 /  10  20  10   0
HHW  100  76 102  78 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060-061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05