164
FXUS64 KTSA 130758
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A thunderstorm complex currently over western/central Kansas will continue
to trek east through the night and may brush portions of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning into the early afternoon
hours. The bulk of the activity is expected to remain north of the
area. However, any of the stronger storms that move into the area will
be capable of producing locally heavy rains.

Surface dew points are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across a
good swath of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas today due to
the recent heavy rains. Thanks to the moisture-laden airmass, the temperatures
this afternoon in the mid to upper 90s will feel more like 105 to 109 across
much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Will go ahead and keep
the current heat advisory in place for today as is.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal for this time
of year through the forecast period with heat headlines likely across
portions of the area into the weekend. A frontal boundary is expected to move into
northern portions of the area Thursday night into Friday bringing low chances of
showers/storms of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. More showers/storms
may be possible over the weekend as the upper level ridge amplifies to our west
and a northwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms may brush far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Tuesday morning into early afternoon, with
brief reductions in visibility possible within any stronger storms
that may impact the far northwest Arkansas sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  79  98  78 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   96  76  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   98  77  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   93  75  98  75 /  50  10   0  10
FYV   92  74  95  74 /  40  10  10   0
BYV   92  72  96  74 /  50  10  10   0
MKO   96  76  97  76 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   91  74  97  76 /  70  10   0  10
F10   97  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   99  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-054-059>061-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05