546
FXUS64 KTSA 142343
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
643 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Weak boundary currently extends through western AR and could mark
a zone for an isolated storm through early evening, otherwise hot
and humid conditions ongoing will only slowly improve after
sunset. Notable wave currently extending through western KS will
aid an expanding area of thunderstorms which may spread toward the
OK/KS border by sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Corridor of showers and storms are likely to be ongoing near or
across portions of NE OK tomorrow morning. This convection should
wane by early afternoon though may not completely dissipate.
Outflow boundary from the overnight convection and/or a weak cold
front will move further south to near the Interstate 44 corridor
by late afternoon. Pooled moisture along the boundary will mark a
zone of stronger instability and the scenario of persistent weak
convection gradually intensifying or renewed storm development
along the boundary will have access to the stronger instability
and improving wind fields aloft. A window for more organized
storms and associated severe potential will exist from mid
afternoon through mid/late evening with fcst soundings supporting
localized damaging downburst winds possible.

Dangerous heat will continue on Thursday with any thunderstorm
influences likely too late in the day to inhibit another
widespread footprint of high heat index / wet bulb globe temps.

Hot and humid conditions likely continue into Friday with
potential for storms from late evening into overnight hours as
another wave passes on the periphery of the upper ridge. The
Friday night into early Saturday window will need to be monitored
for heavy rain potential as several model members do suggest
isolated heavy totals.

The upper ridge may slowly become centered more westward over the
weekend with temps nearer seasonal normals, however expect hot
afternoon heat index values to continue through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight period
for all sites. Isolated showers and storms may approach BVO during
the morning hours as a front moves into the region, but
confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
in NE OK tomorrow afternoon into the evening, potentially
impacting BVO, TUL, and RVS. These storms may produce heavy
rainfall, reduced vsbys and strong winds. Storms will move east
into NW AR, potentially impacting NW AR sites after 00z tomorrow.
Short range guidance indicates potential for one or more outflow
boundaries to move into NE OK during the morning hours which may
lead to more variable wind speed & direction... though southerly
winds are expected to persist overall ahead of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  99  76  98 /  10  20  30  10
FSM   77 101  78 100 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   78  99  76  98 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   76  99  71  96 /  20  30  30  10
FYV   75  96  74  96 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   75  98  73  97 /  10  20  30  10
MKO   77  97  76  96 /   0  10  20  10
MIO   77  97  71  96 /  10  30  40  10
F10   78  98  74  98 /   0  10  20  10
HHW   77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>059-
     062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ060-
     061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43