177
FXUS64 KTSA 282338
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next week with
     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.

   - Daily scattered showers and storms expected much of the next
     week with locally heavy rains, downburst winds, and lightning
     being the primary hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in
place this afternoon and evening, primarily across far eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Any ongoing precip this evening
should diminish after sunset with decreasing instability. Mostly
dry and quiet conditions are expected tonight, though some
scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the low level jet
intensifies overnight. Lows remain seasonable in the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The synoptic pattern will continue to favor daily shower and
thunderstorm chances with a nearly persistent supply of rich gulf
moisture to the region. It still appears a weak front will push
into the CWA for the first half of next week and stall with the
better precip chances and coverage expected Monday through
Wednesday. Any intrusion of relatively drier air following the
front is forecast to be brief, with southerly flow quickly
returning. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will remain
the top concern with thunderstorms. However, at least limited
potential for downbursts and strong to damaging winds will likely
continue as well.

Temperatures are forecast to remain fairly steady through the
period, generally in the 90s during the day and 70s at night,
which is near to slightly above normal. Dewpoints in the 70s will
continue to support maximum heat index values between 95-105
degrees over the next several days. Depending on convective trends
and cloud cover, some areas may reach or exceed advisory criteria
tomorrow... and this will be considered in future forecast
packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Ongoing showers/storms across northwest Arkansas will remain
forecast through sunset, with precipitation weakening thereafter.
Overnight tonight few to scattered high clouds are anticipated for
the CWA. There remains some isolated potential for patchy areas of
reduced visibility in far northwest Arkansas. At this time will
continue to hold off mentioning due to uncertainties with
development. During the day Sunday, scattered mid and high clouds
are again forecast across the majority of the CWA. Slight chance
of convection develops Sunday afternoon, though for now will keep
TAF sites dry. VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
FSM   74  95  75  93 /  10  20  10  60
MLC   76  94  75  92 /  10  10   0  50
BVO   73  94  72  91 /  20  20  40  50
FYV   72  92  72  90 /  20  30  20  70
BYV   71  91  72  90 /  20  40  20  70
MKO   74  92  74  91 /  10  20  10  60
MIO   72  92  72  88 /  30  30  50  60
F10   75  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   74  93  74  93 /   0  10   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20