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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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546 FXUS64 KTSA 142343 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 643 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Weak boundary currently extends through western AR and could mark a zone for an isolated storm through early evening, otherwise hot and humid conditions ongoing will only slowly improve after sunset. Notable wave currently extending through western KS will aid an expanding area of thunderstorms which may spread toward the OK/KS border by sunrise. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Corridor of showers and storms are likely to be ongoing near or across portions of NE OK tomorrow morning. This convection should wane by early afternoon though may not completely dissipate. Outflow boundary from the overnight convection and/or a weak cold front will move further south to near the Interstate 44 corridor by late afternoon. Pooled moisture along the boundary will mark a zone of stronger instability and the scenario of persistent weak convection gradually intensifying or renewed storm development along the boundary will have access to the stronger instability and improving wind fields aloft. A window for more organized storms and associated severe potential will exist from mid afternoon through mid/late evening with fcst soundings supporting localized damaging downburst winds possible. Dangerous heat will continue on Thursday with any thunderstorm influences likely too late in the day to inhibit another widespread footprint of high heat index / wet bulb globe temps. Hot and humid conditions likely continue into Friday with potential for storms from late evening into overnight hours as another wave passes on the periphery of the upper ridge. The Friday night into early Saturday window will need to be monitored for heavy rain potential as several model members do suggest isolated heavy totals. The upper ridge may slowly become centered more westward over the weekend with temps nearer seasonal normals, however expect hot afternoon heat index values to continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight period for all sites. Isolated showers and storms may approach BVO during the morning hours as a front moves into the region, but confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front in NE OK tomorrow afternoon into the evening, potentially impacting BVO, TUL, and RVS. These storms may produce heavy rainfall, reduced vsbys and strong winds. Storms will move east into NW AR, potentially impacting NW AR sites after 00z tomorrow. Short range guidance indicates potential for one or more outflow boundaries to move into NE OK during the morning hours which may lead to more variable wind speed & direction... though southerly winds are expected to persist overall ahead of the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 99 76 98 / 10 20 30 10 FSM 77 101 78 100 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 78 99 76 98 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 76 99 71 96 / 20 30 30 10 FYV 75 96 74 96 / 0 10 20 10 BYV 75 98 73 97 / 10 20 30 10 MKO 77 97 76 96 / 0 10 20 10 MIO 77 97 71 96 / 10 30 40 10 F10 78 98 74 98 / 0 10 20 10 HHW 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058- 062-063-068-069-073-075. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>059- 062-063-068-069-073-075. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070>072-074-076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ060- 061-064>067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...43