180
FXUS64 KTSA 101505
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1004 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

   - Heat Advisory for parts of northeast and east central
     Oklahoma as well as west central Arkansas from 1 PM to 8 PM
     today.

   - Isolated late afternoon showers and storms possible in mainly
     southeast Oklahoma today.

   - A more active weather regime returns for the weekend on into
     next week with daily thunderstorm chances.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     each of the next few afternoons. The warmest days will be today
     and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through This Afternoon )
Issued at 1004 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions were common across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as of mid morning. These
conditions were aiding in temperatures running about 2 to 6
degrees warmer compared to 24-hrs ago across much of the CWA. At
the same time dewpoints were running slightly higher as well.

Through this afternoon, surface low pressure over eastern
Colorado/western Kansas is progged to deepen slightly this
afternoon and create a slightly tighter pressure gradient with
surface high pressure over the Gulf coast states. In response,
south to southwesterly winds of 5-15 mph are anticipated this
afternoon. Partly cloudy skies combined with these winds and
current temp trends should help afternoon temps to climb into the
low/mid 90s over the CWA. The breezier conditions of 10-15 mph
should be mainly along and northwest of Interstate 44. Thus, with
the lighter winds over the rest of the CWA, this could limit the
amount of afternoon mixing and keep dewpoints in the 70s for a
good portion of the CWA. These conditions will create heat index
values in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. For locations
forecast to have heat index values around 105 degrees have issued
an Heat Advisory for this afternoon. Area of greater potential
looks to be within the Arkansas River Valley. Will monitor
conditions for any further expansion of the advisory.

Also this afternoon, surface/elevated instability interacting with
max daytime heating and low level moisture will allow for a slight
chance of an isolated shower/storm. The greater potential for
this continues to be across southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas, mainly south/southeast of a weak 700-mb wind shift
currently oriented southwest to northeast over northeast Oklahoma.
Any storm development will be capable of producing brief heavy
rain and gusty to locally strong wind gusts.

For the morning update, have adjusted temp/dewpoint trends and PoP
locations based on the mentioned above. Otherwise the rest of the
forecast seems to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Friday looks to be the last dry day for awhile. Temperatures will
once again warm into the low to mid 90s, but heat index values will
likely be a bit lower than Thursday due to slightly lower dewpoints.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night and
Saturday as a weak cold front sags south into the area. This
boundary and/or convective outflow will continue to trigger showers
and storms through the weekend, with the better chances likely
shifting a bit south by Sunday compared to Saturday. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over the weekend.

General upper troughing early next week will result in continued
storm chances, but coverage will likely be lower than over the
weekend. Another frontal boundary looks to move into the area around
the middle of next week and will once again increase the coverage of
showers and storms. Temperatures will likely remain below normal
through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Largely MVFR visibility reductions remain possible at most of the
terminals through 13Z given trends at other observation sites and
satellite observations. FYV briefly observed IFR conditions
earlier this morning which quickly rebounded to VFR and with
currently non-calm wind conditions expect that quite that
substantial a drop is unlikely. Will monitor trends to ultimately
determine how low to go in their TEMPO before issuance. Outside of
the immediate visibility concerns, VFR conditions will prevail,
with gusty afternoon southerly winds largely confined to the NE OK
terminals. A few afternoon thunderstorms may approach MLC and FSM
but coverage is expected to be limited enough that explicit
mention of on station impacts is not prudent at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77  94  74 /   0  10   0  30
FSM   96  76  96  75 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   94  75  94  74 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   94  73  94  71 /   0  10   0  50
FYV   92  72  92  71 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   93  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   94  75  94  73 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   93  75  93  71 /   0  10  10  40
F10   93  75  92  73 /  10  10   0  20
HHW   93  75  94  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060-061-066-067-070>072-074.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22