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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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019 FXUS64 KTSA 141710 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Mostly clear skies are present across the area, and this should remain the case through this evening. A very warm airmass is in place with high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, elevated moisture levels will result in very high heat indices of 105-115F across the forecast area. Accordingly, Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for all portions of the CWA. Breezy southerly winds will continue through the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The heat persists on Thursday. However, there will some potential for limited relief in the form of isolated to scattered showers/storms Thursday afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds the main concern. Above normal temperatures are set to continue into early next week as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Plains. There could be some shower/storm activity over the weekend on the eastern periphery of the building high. Heat headlines will likely be needed across portions of the area through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Mostly clear skies are expected for the remainder of the day, with the exception of some afternoon cumulus in the 4-6 kft range. High clouds will develop and lower overnight, especially in northeast OK, but even these will mostly remain at or above 10 kft. A few showers and storms may develop Thursday morning in northeast OK, but overall coverage will be isolated. Ceilings would likely lower in any showers or storms, with brief heavy rain and gusty erratic winds. Otherwise, winds will be out of the south to southwest through the period, but weaker during the overnight hours. Some marginal low level wind shear could develop near KBVO tonight but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 98 75 97 / 10 20 30 10 FSM 77 99 78 100 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 78 98 77 99 / 0 10 10 10 BVO 76 97 71 97 / 10 30 30 10 FYV 75 96 74 95 / 0 20 30 10 BYV 75 97 73 96 / 0 20 30 20 MKO 77 97 75 97 / 0 20 20 10 MIO 75 97 71 95 / 10 30 30 10 F10 78 99 75 99 / 0 20 20 10 HHW 77 99 77 101 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058- 062-063-068-069-073-075. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...06