019
FXUS64 KTSA 141710
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Mostly clear skies are present across the area, and this should
remain the case through this evening. A very warm airmass is in
place with high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to
upper 90s. Additionally, elevated moisture levels will result in
very high heat indices of 105-115F across the forecast area.
Accordingly, Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect for all portions of the CWA. Breezy southerly winds will
continue through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The heat persists on Thursday. However, there will some potential
for limited relief in the form of isolated to scattered showers/storms
Thursday afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves into northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few of these storms could be strong
to severe with damaging winds the main concern.

Above normal temperatures are set to continue into early next week as
an upper level ridge amplifies over the Plains. There could be some
shower/storm activity over the weekend on the eastern periphery of the
building high. Heat headlines will likely be needed across portions of
the area through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Mostly clear skies are expected for the remainder of the day, with
the exception of some afternoon cumulus in the 4-6 kft range. High
clouds will develop and lower overnight, especially in northeast
OK, but even these will mostly remain at or above 10 kft. A few
showers and storms may develop Thursday morning in northeast OK,
but overall coverage will be isolated. Ceilings would likely lower
in any showers or storms, with brief heavy rain and gusty erratic
winds. Otherwise, winds will be out of the south to southwest
through the period, but weaker during the overnight hours. Some
marginal low level wind shear could develop near KBVO tonight but
confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  98  75  97 /  10  20  30  10
FSM   77  99  78 100 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   78  98  77  99 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   76  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  10
FYV   75  96  74  95 /   0  20  30  10
BYV   75  97  73  96 /   0  20  30  20
MKO   77  97  75  97 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   75  97  71  95 /  10  30  30  10
F10   78  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  10
HHW   77  99  77 101 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06