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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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279 FXUS64 KTSA 031131 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 631 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A few light showers this morning across NE OK from earlier decaying thunderstorm complex. An additional MCV is currently moving into central Oklahoma. Some of this developing shower/ thunderstorm activity could potentially move into portions of northeast Oklahoma later this morning. Dangerous heat is again expected today over much of the area. Generally used dew-points from yesterday as starting point for this afternoon`s forecast. Heat index values are expected to climb into the 105-110 degree range with locally higher indices where the excessive heat warning is in effect. Some potential that storms developing near Oklahoma/Kansas line this afternoon, along approaching cold front, could keep heat indices from reaching full potential. Went ahead and kept heat advisory for now, but some of those counties could be cancelled if storms develop a littler earlier than expected. A few these storms could be strong to marginally severe with locally damaging winds the main threat. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Cold front is forecast to stall near the I-44 corridor tonight and will briefly lift back north into the day Thursday. Heat indices will again be a concern and will go ahead and issue heat advisory areawide. Majority of models, including several CAMS, suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop along frontal boundary by late afternoon with storms pushing across much of northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds will be possible in the stronger storms. This activity is expected to continue overnight as storms move through the remainder of southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas overnight. Finally a break on Friday from the relentless heat of late, behind cold front, with highs generally in the upper 80s in most areas. A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas before shifting south by Friday evening. Both GFS/ECMWF are in general agreement with another upper level trough digging into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. There is some potential for a MCS to develop to the north, potentially impacting portions of the area Sunday night. Better moisture return/instability may end of being slightly west of the area, but still eastern Oklahoma could get clipped by eastern edge of complex during this time. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for the early part of next week as broad upper trough remains across the central/eastern CONUS with at least low precip chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Light rain showers continue to move northeastward across NE OK this morning. A few lightning strikes are embedded in the rain as well. These showers/storms may impact TUL, RVS, and BVO through mid-late morning, but confidence isn`t high enough to include the mention of rain/storms at this time. Slightly better storm chances will come this afternoon, mainly impacting NE OK and NW AR terminals, as a weak frontal boundary sags in to NE OK and becomes stationary along/near the I-44 corridor. Kept Prob30 groups at BVO, TUL, RVS, ROG, XNA, and FYV from mid afternoon through at least 00z this evening, perhaps lingering through midnight for the NE OK terminals. Although VFR is expected to prevail, heavier rain may cause lower ceilings and reduced visibilities briefly. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR will prevail through the TAF period with light-moderate south to southwest winds. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 79 99 71 / 20 20 30 50 FSM 101 80 100 76 / 10 10 20 50 MLC 99 79 98 72 / 0 0 20 50 BVO 93 73 96 65 / 30 30 40 40 FYV 97 75 97 69 / 20 10 30 60 BYV 97 75 97 69 / 40 30 30 60 MKO 98 78 98 71 / 10 10 20 60 MIO 94 74 96 67 / 40 40 40 60 F10 99 78 99 70 / 10 10 30 60 HHW 96 78 97 73 / 0 0 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063>065-068-069-073-075. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...67