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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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055 FXUS64 KTSA 031712 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers persist late this morning near the Kansas border but should continue its current decrease in coverage into early afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development remains expected mid to late afternoon into the evening, focused across northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas. Instability levels will support a localized severe wind threat with the strongest storms. The previous forecast had the general trends handled well and only minor tweaks - namely to increase POPs through the rest of the morning with the ongoing activity and also to spread the low POPs late this afternoon further south given data from recent CAMs. The ongoing showers and residual cloud cover do make the temperature and heat index forecast somewhat problematic, with highs likely to be lower than previously forecast on the northern fringes of the forecast area. Have lowered forecast highs some using the short-term consensus blend and some tweaks to such according to current observations. This, of course, decreases the expected afternoon heat index values in mainly Osage and Pawnee counties but not enough to justify cancelling the existing Heat Advisory there, especially given the current heat indices observed by the Mesonet over eastern Pawnee and southeastern Osage counties. Will monitor trends into early afternoon and adjust these thoughts as necessary. Updated forecast is already out. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Cold front is forecast to stall near the I-44 corridor tonight and will briefly lift back north into the day Thursday. Heat indices will again be a concern and will go ahead and issue heat advisory areawide. Majority of models, including several CAMS, suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop along frontal boundary by late afternoon with storms pushing across much of northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds will be possible in the stronger storms. This activity is expected to continue overnight as storms move through the remainder of southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas overnight. Finally a break on Friday from the relentless heat of late, behind cold front, with highs generally in the upper 80s in most areas. A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas before shifting south by Friday evening. Both GFS/ECMWF are in general agreement with another upper level trough digging into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. There is some potential for a MCS to develop to the north, potentially impacting portions of the area Sunday night. Better moisture return/instability may end of being slightly west of the area, but still eastern Oklahoma could get clipped by eastern edge of complex during this time. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for the early part of next week as broad upper trough remains across the central/eastern CONUS with at least low precip chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although the expectation of isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening and again overnight, would likely bring brief category reductions if they occur on station. BVO is the most likely terminal for this to occur, with 06-12Z being the main time frame. This potential will be covered with a PROB30 group. TUL/RVS and also FYV/XNA/ROG could also be impacted this afternoon/early evening but with questions regarding coverage, will cover with either a VCSH or VCTS mention. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 78 100 69 / 30 30 40 50 FSM 101 80 100 74 / 10 0 20 60 MLC 98 79 99 72 / 10 0 20 60 BVO 92 73 97 65 / 40 40 40 40 FYV 98 75 97 68 / 20 10 30 60 BYV 97 74 97 68 / 40 30 40 60 MKO 100 77 98 70 / 20 10 30 60 MIO 94 74 96 66 / 40 40 50 50 F10 100 77 99 69 / 20 10 30 70 HHW 98 77 97 73 / 10 0 10 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059- 063>065-068-069-073-075. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...22