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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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067 FXUS64 KTSA 031902 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 202 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for portions of eastern OK and west-central AR with a Heat Advisory in effect for the remainder of the area. Heat indices are currently in the 100-110F range, and will climb to 105-115F. A few lingering showers will remain possible into this evening near the KS border by a stationary boundary. CAM guidance remains inconsistent, but does indicate at least a 10-20% chance of a few showers and storms forming further south towards a line from roughly Tulsa to Miami later this afternoon or evening. Otherwise, tonight will be another unusually mild night with lows in the mid 70s to near 80 F. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Excessive heat continues south of the previously mentioned boundary near the KS border into Independence Day (Thursday). Reissued Excessive Heat Warnings for portions of eastern OK and west- central AR with Heat Advisories elsewhere. A cold front will overtake and advance the stationary boundary during the evening with a good chance of thunderstorms developing at that time, especially for northeast OK and northwest AR. The setup will favor storms capable of producing heavy rain and strong downburst winds. The SPC has noted a 15-30% chance of damaging wind gusts in the area with the WPC showing a 5-15% of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Considering the PWAT values of near 2", low level water vapor near the 99th percentile, strong CAPE, and weak wind shear, these outlooks make sense. The storms and associated outflow will move into southeast OK Friday morning and out of the area by the afternoon. Behind the front we can expect a reprieve from the heat and humidity with high temperatures falling into the mid 80s to low 90s (Friday and Saturday). Low temperatures will into the 60s to low 70s. As southerly flow returns Sunday, temperatures and moisture levels will try to climb again. However, there is uncertainty with how quickly this will occur, with the NBM temperature probabilities showing a relatively large spread Sunday. Even so, considering we will have a cooler upper atmosphere and a renewed chance of rain as the upper level trough axis digs favorably into the region, high temperatures will most likely stay confined to the mid 80s to lower 90s. In terms of timing, rain will be possible for most of the Saturday night to Tuesday period, but ensemble guidance shows later Sunday and Monday as the most likely (30-50% chance of rain). Ensemble cluster analysis depicts sizable uncertainty with how far south the trough will dig during this period, but the more it can dig to the southwest the higher our probability for rain will be. For the middle to end of next week we look to keep the upper level trough overhead so near normal temperatures with at least some chance of rain will continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although the expectation of isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening and again overnight, would likely bring brief category reductions if they occur on station. BVO is the most likely terminal for this to occur, with 06-12Z being the main time frame. This potential will be covered with a PROB30 group. TUL/RVS and also FYV/XNA/ROG could also be impacted this afternoon/early evening but with questions regarding coverage, will cover with either a VCSH or VCTS mention. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 100 69 89 / 30 40 50 10 FSM 80 100 74 91 / 0 20 60 20 MLC 79 99 72 88 / 0 20 60 20 BVO 73 97 65 87 / 40 40 40 10 FYV 75 97 68 86 / 10 30 60 10 BYV 74 97 68 86 / 30 40 60 10 MKO 77 98 70 88 / 10 30 60 10 MIO 74 96 66 85 / 40 50 50 10 F10 77 99 69 88 / 10 30 70 20 HHW 77 97 73 90 / 0 10 50 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059- 063>065-068-069-073-075. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>059- 063-064-068-069-075. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22