465
FXUS64 KTSA 070540
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Current forecast for tonight is on track. Latest short-term
guidance continues to keep the thunderstorm complex current over
western Kansas to the west of the area overnight. Have only
made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight to better
reflect the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An absolutely beautiful day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with seasonal
temperatures, dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s, light
winds and plenty of sun. The nice weather will continue through
much, if not all, of the overnight, with low temperatures a couple
of degrees below seasonal normals. Expect an increase in
cloudiness toward daybreak in areas northwest of I-44 as a
thunderstorm complex approaches from western/central Kansas. The
main source of forecast uncertainty tonight is whether the complex
moves into the forecast area before or after daybreak. The bulk
of the guidance points toward a daytime arrival, and as such, will
keep the forecast dry through 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The aforementioned thunderstorm complex is expected to move into
parts of northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning, likely in a declining
state intensity-wise given the lower instability this far east.
Areas along and north of I-44 have a medium to high chance to see
showers and thunderstorms during the morning, although the chance
of severe weather is low. Additional storms should develop during
the afternoon and evening, again to the north and west of the
area, and move through the area overnight. Higher instability
positioned across the western half of Oklahoma and the location of
the upper level support will favor areas just west of the
forecast area for severe weather and the higher rainfall totals.

Into the day Monday, the focus for additional thunderstorms should
be across southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas given
the moisture moving into that part of the area ahead of Beryl.
That same area will remain the focus into mid week, as the
remnants of Beryl move across the ArkLaTex. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible on the southeast fringes of the forecast area as
the remnants move across, but the highest totals remain likely to
stay just to the east. A period of dry weather should arrive by
Wednesday night as Beryl is caught up in the upper level trough
and carried northeastward away from the region.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue at times late in the week
and into the weekend until upper level ridging begins to build
into the area next weekend. How quickly that occurs remains
uncertain, but it does look like our break in the heat for much of
this weekend and the upcoming work week will come to an end either
next weekend or into the following work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A storm complex over NW OK/SW KS is expected to eventually spread
east across NE OK during the mid-morning thru early afternoon
hours, while gradually decaying. TEMPOs were maintained from
previous forecast for potential MVFR conditions with the storms.
PROB30s were maintained at the far NW AR sites for the afternoon,
though the latest data suggests the morning activity should
dissipate by the time they would arrive there. Outside of this,
expect VFR to prevail at all sites thru much of the day on Sunday.
By late afternoon storms will begin to fire along an advancing
outflow/front near the NE OK terminals and spread east/south from
there into the evening. Inserted TEMPO groups for the E OK sites
where confidence is greater and used VCTS mention during the
evening at the W AR sites where confidence declines a bit
regarding direct impact to the terminals.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  84  69 /  50  70  60  30
FSM   96  73  88  70 /  10  50  60  60
MLC   93  69  84  68 /  20  60  60  40
BVO   85  65  83  65 /  60  80  50  30
FYV   93  68  86  66 /   0  50  70  50
BYV   94  68  85  66 /   0  50  70  60
MKO   92  68  83  68 /  20  50  60  40
MIO   90  67  83  67 /  20  60  50  30
F10   91  67  82  67 /  30  60  60  40
HHW   92  71  86  68 /  10  60  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30