826
FXUS64 KTSA 071539
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1039 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to slowly
spread eastward into parts of eastern Oklahoma. Coverage and
intensity trends have been down over the last hour or two with the
loss of the low level jet and a more stable airmass in place over
northeast Oklahoma this morning. Nevertheless, scattered showers
with some thunder should continue into the early afternoon before
dissipating as activity tracks further eastward. A couple of
strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out, mainly
near and south of I-40 where more destabilization has occurred
owing to more sunshine this morning. The strongest activity
through the rest of the morning and early afternoon should track
along a theta-e gradient/axis extending from south-central
Oklahoma northeastward into parts of southeast Oklahoma. Heavy
rainfall will be the primary threat with ample moisture in place
over the region, along with some gusty winds.

Uncertainty still exists in the evolution of thunderstorm chances
later in the day as we wait on current activity to wane. Most CAM
guidance continues to indicate additional thunderstorm development
along a weak surface boundary within the broad upper level trough
axis across northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening.
Current satellite trends do show some clearing beginning to hedge
eastward across north-central Oklahoma/south-central Kansas. If
enough sun can break through this afternoon, then sufficient
recovery should allow for this scenario to unfold, with possibly
multiple rounds of storms setting up along the boundary this
evening as the low level jet again intensifies and low level
moisture advection increases into the region. A couple of strong
storms will be possible during this time as well, though the
overall severe threat remains low at this time.

For the update this morning...adjusted PoP`s/thunder grids to
account for the latest trends, along with some tweaks to
temperatures and sky grids as morning cloud cover should help
hold temperatures down several degrees across eastern Oklahoma
this afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Thunderstorm potential should continue tonight into Monday while
expanding east with time, as Beryl makes landfall along the TX
Gulf Coast Monday and moisture increases across eastern sections.
Heavy rainfall will remain a possibility tonight, particularly in
locations affected by multiple rounds of storms, and become
focused across southeast OK and western AR Monday night and
Tuesday due to the potential impacts of Beryl.

A dry period will ensue in the wake of the tropical system into
mid week, trough with a general weak upper trough in place at
least isolated chances may persist. Temps early in the week
should remain below normal, but summer is likely to return by next
weekend with the upper ridge expanding back into the plains. Nice
while it lasted.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Confidence is low regarding convective evolution. Overall radar
trends seem to be following ideas presented by 00Z and 06Z HRRR
runs, albeit off on timing by several hours. Went with a
prevailing VFR SHRA/VCTS mention at the NE OK sites this morning,
and a VCTS mention at KMLC. Given current weakening trend as
activity moves into E OK, decided to pull PROB30 thunder mention
from the NW AR TAFs for the afternoon. Current expectation is that
morning stuff fades, and we get redevelopment in the afternoon
across northern OK, with the activity becoming a loosely organized
southeastward moving complex with time. Maintained TEMPOs or VCTS
mentions to cover this round. Still more potential overnight and
used PROB30 to cover this. Latest LAMP guidance suggests some MVFR
cig potential at the tail end of the forecast Monday morning at
the E OK sites.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  70  84  69 /  60  70  60  30
FSM   96  72  85  70 /  10  30  80  60
MLC   93  69  82  68 /  30  50  80  40
BVO   84  66  84  65 /  80  70  40  30
FYV   92  67  84  66 /  10  40  70  50
BYV   92  68  86  66 /  10  40  80  60
MKO   91  68  84  68 /  30  60  70  40
MIO   89  67  84  67 /  40  60  60  30
F10   90  67  83  67 /  40  60  70  40
HHW   93  69  81  68 /   0  40  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30