873
FXUS64 KTSA 022347
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of the area, with
Heat Advisories in effect for a small portion of far northeast OK
and northwest AR. Afternoon heat indices of 105-115F are expected. A
breezy southerly wind will continue through this evening with gusts
of 15-25 mph. A few showers and thunderstorms, or perhaps just
outflow from distant storms, may move into far northeast OK near the
KS border this evening and overnight, but otherwise dry conditions
will prevail. Low temperatures will still be quite mild, generally
in the mid 70s to around 80 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A boundary will remain mostly stationary in northeast OK or southern
KS Wednesday, allowing for southerly warm/moist advection to
continue. This will maintain the unusually hot airmass in place.
Dewpoints were increased above the NBM through much of the
period. Another round of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are in effect for Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon or
evening, CAMs indicate fairly large instability but with limited
wind shear. There may be just enough lift along the boundary to
generate scattered thunderstorms. Assuming this does occur, these
storms would be cold pool dominated and the main hazards would be
brief heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Independence Day
(Thursday) will feature more of the same with additional hot and
humid weather. By Thursday evening, however, a cold front will
overtake the stalled boundary across northeast OK. This will
likely result in sufficient lift for more widespread convective
initiation. With PWAT values near 2", weak steering flow, and
minimal shear, areas of heavy rain and strong gusty winds will
develop but other severe hazards are unlikely. As these storms
develop a surface cold pool, it will force the effective frontal
boundary south during the evening and overnight hours. Increased
Pops during this period to 40-60%.

For most areas, Friday will be much cooler and drier with highs
falling into the upper 80s with dewpoints into the 60s. Some
portions of southeast OK, where the front will be slower to clear,
may see a few additional storms during the first half of the day.
Low temperatures will be refreshing Saturday morning, with 60s
expected across the area.

Southerly flow resumes on Saturday with temperatures and humidity
levels climbing again into early next week. However, with a robust
trough across the northern Plains the atmosphere will overall be
cooler and less supportive of extreme heat. Presumably, this should
cap maximum temperatures in the mid 90s. So although it will be
hot, it will feel cooler than our current weather regime.
Additionally, as the upper trough digs into the region we will see
rain chances increase beginning Saturday, but more likely Sunday
to Monday. Increased Pops from the NBM to account for this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Increasing cloud cover along with a surface boundary are forecast
to move into Northeast Oklahoma this evening and remain common
overnight tonight. A few showers/storms may linger overnight near
the Kansas border and will continue with VCSH at KBVO. Across the
rest of the CWA tonight...mostly clear to scattered high clouds
are forecast. During the day Wednesday...scattered to broken mid
and high clouds are forecast to continue/develop over the CWA.
Low end chance of showers/storms become possible Wednesday
afternoon with the boundary forecast over/near the CWA...and have
added Prob30 groups to far Northwest Arkansas. Breezy winds at the
start of the period are expected to weaken this evening...become
light from a variable direction to a southerly direction
tonight...and then return from the south to southwest Wednesday.
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  79  99 /  10  20  20  30
FSM   80 101  79  99 /   0  20   0  20
MLC   79  99  78  98 /   0  20   0  20
BVO   75  93  74  97 /  20  30  20  40
FYV   77  97  75  97 /  10  30  10  30
BYV   77  95  73  97 /  10  40  20  40
MKO   78  98  77  97 /  10  20  20  20
MIO   76  93  75  96 /  30  30  30  40
F10   78  98  77  98 /  10  20  10  30
HHW   78  96  78  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>059-
     063>065-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20