127
FXUS63 KTOP 120544
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1244 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Maintaining a forecast with overall below normal high and low
  temperatures through Tuesday.

- Trend with mainly overnight through early morning off and on
  precipitation chances continues as well into the upcoming work week.

- Temperatures trend back to around normal by mid week through
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

This afternoon and small area of convection was moving across parts
of central and northeast Kansas in a region of 850mb-700mb warm and
moisture advection. A weak 700 mb trough was moving into central
Kansas at 19Z. Expect the isolated convection to move eastward
through the rest of the afternoon and should move out by early
evening. Attention then turns to rain chances for tonight.
Convection is forecast to develop across the high Plains of western
Nebraska into northwest Kansas this evening. Mid afternoon water
vapor satellite had a shortwave at mid levels moving across Wyoming
and into South Dakota while further south moisture was moving around
the upper high over Texas and across Kansas. Moisture will continue
to advect through the night and with moisture transport focusing
into east central Kansas into Missouri will promote the possibility
of locally heavy rainfall later tonight. The storms from the high
Plains this evening are forecast to track across Nebraska and affect
northeast Kansas late tonight and additional convection may develop
within a zone of thermal and moisture advection across southern and
east central Kansas. Therefore have maintained the higher
precipitation probabilities for these areas tonight.

On Monday, the morning convection should move out by mid to late
morning with some clearing in the afternoon hours. Mid level ridge
builds into central Kansas with temperatures warming back into the
80s, while far northeast Kansas will see highs in the 70s. The next
chance for convection will be Monday night as another cluster of
storms develops across the high Plains and then propagates eastward
across the state.

The midlevel high builds northward into Kansas Tuesday and Wednesday
ahead of a trough over the western States and eastern Pacific.
Additional perturbations and the low level jet will lead to
additional nocturnal convection Tuesday night and Wednesday night as
the monsoonal moisture remains across northern Kansas. Wednesday
night will see a mid level trough move across the Plains with a
frontal boundary sliding into northeast Kansas by Thursday morning.

Another mid level wave Thursday night may bring another small
chance (20-25%) chance for convection, but models begin to differ on
timing and level of forcing across northeast Kansas. A relatively
dry period is expected next weekend. Temperatures rebound to around
normal for mid august on Wednesday with high around 90 and then are
expected for the latter half of the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible tonight,
especially for the Topeka airports. IFR CIGS are then expected
to settle in for a few hours Tuesday morning before scattering
out early afternoon. Winds remain light at less than 10 kts
through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Teefey