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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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707 FXUS63 KTOP 181102 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 602 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are possible today (15-30%) and tonight (30-55% chance). A few storms this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe. - Below normal temperatures to start the workweek before temperatures gradually warm into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Upper ridging persists across the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest this morning with a couple of perturbations rounding the ridge. Surface high pressure is in control of the middle of the CONUS, keeping conditions across the forecast area benign overnight. Lift associated with the aforementioned waves along with isentropic ascent have generated showers and storms across South Dakota and Nebraska. As these features continue around the ridge, sufficient lift and saturation in the mid-levels will support the development of showers and storms later this morning into the afternoon. Uncertainty remains in coverage and intensity of storms with CAMs showing a wide variety of solutions. Several CAMs show a complex of storms moving along the instability gradient into northeast Kansas. Others suggest a more scattered natured to convection with recent runs of the HRRR being an outlier solution, showing little to no precipitation across the area through the day. The passing waves are fairly weak and isentropic ascent becomes better focused across eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening. This supports isolated to scattered storms through the afternoon and evening as the most probable solution. Elevated instability of 500-1000 J/kg coupled with 45-50kts of effective shear would support a low-end severe threat and the strongest storms could produce hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts. If an organized MCS moves into the area, the potential for severe storms increases with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. CAMs are in good agreement with additional storms developing this evening and overnight as a slightly stronger wave progresses southeast and isentropic ascent increases. Instability is progged to be weak (<500 J/kg) which should preclude any severe weather potential. A surface high builds south on Monday and Tuesday bringing in drier air and keeping temperatures in the 80s. Another wave rounds the ridge Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a small chance of precipitation across central Kansas. Upper ridging builds overhead Wednesday with gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions into next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 VFR conditions expected. Confidence in any TS near terminals today has lowered as convection in Nebraska is expected to weaken as it moves south. Scattered showers are possible near terminals this afternoon before additional showers and isolated storms are possible overnight. Coverage of precipitation overnight remains uncertain, so input VCSH for now. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan