446
FXUS65 KTFX 020601
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1159 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

Below average temperatures will persist through at least July 4th,
with daily opportunities for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms for most areas, especially for the plains. Thereafter,
a warming  and drying trend looks to commence, though how warm we
ultimately get this weekend is questionable.

&&

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing with the loss of
diurnal heating, but a moist and unsettled northwesterly flow
aloft will maintain slight chances lower grade activity during the
overnight hours. Another disturbance arrives early on Tuesday and
will kick off another round of scattered showers and storms and
west to northwesterly breezes. Model guidance keeps Tuesday`s
precipitation chances mostly over Central and North-central MT.
The primary update for this evening was to better align pops and
QPF to current trends. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF Period

Aside from an isolated shower overnight tonight near KLWT, expect
VFR conditions through sunrise. Expect showers to begin to redevelop
after sunrise, isolated at first across the plains before becoming
widely scattered. Will need to watch KHVR, KCTB, KGTF, and KLWT for
brief MVFR to IFR conditions, but not enough confidence in timing
and duration yet to put in PROB30 groups. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 148 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024/

Through the 4th of July... Broad upper level troughing across the
Northern Rockies will support a generally cooler than average period
through the 4th of July. Cool temperatures aloft will result in
afternoon and early evening instability across most areas today,
allowing for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The same
can be said for the next few days as well, though chances for
showers and thunderstorms will decrease for far southern portions of
Southwest Montana. Forecast soundings show little in the way of
shear through the week, hence current expectation is for impacts to
be limited to lightning, briefly gusty winds, and small hail with
the most robust thunderstorms. -AM

Friday through next Monday... A strong upper level ridge will begin
to build across the Southwestern US late this week, and will begin
to expand its influence to the Northwestern US by the weekend. As
this ridge builds, expect temperatures to gradually rise, with high
temperatures expected to push the low to mid 80s for the lower
elevations. There does remain some uncertainty as to the exact
strength, location, and shape of this ridge, however, which means
that there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how
warm we are able to get (or even if we see much of a warm up for the
weekend, as there is about a 30% chance of this warm up being rather
insignificant). Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  74  50  69 /  40  50  20  70
CTB  50  72  48  65 /  50  60  40  80
HLN  54  80  53  75 /  30  20  10  50
BZN  47  75  45  72 /  60  10   0  30
WYS  38  65  38  65 / 100  20   0  40
DLN  43  73  45  71 /  60  10   0  20
HVR  53  77  51  70 /  30  70  50  80
LWT  48  71  46  67 /  50  60  20  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls