760
FNUS72 KTBW 021919
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for MC RX...Manatee County Government
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
319 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm and humid conditions continue across the region on Wednesday with winds mainly
out of the southeast throughout the day, though there could be a slight
shift to the south later in the day as a sea breeze attempts to spread in
from the west. By late afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop with locally heavy rainfall, lightning,
and erratic winds being the main concern. Otherwise, light transport wind speeds
combined with moderate mixing heights will generally yield poor to fair dispersion
conditions at best.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon, then becoming
                    light late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 25 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........13     9      23     34     42
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      20     50     70
LAL.............1      1      2      2      2
Temp............81     88     91     91     90
RH..............92     73     66     65     68
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   S 3
20 ft wind gust.7      8      7      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   3100   4700   4700   2900
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   E 5
Dispersion idx..10     18     27     28     20
LVORI...........6      3      3      2      2

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Showers likely
                    early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening and overnight.
                    Slight chance of showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................2 until 0200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southeast 6 to
                    8 mph early in the evening.
Dispersion index....11 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........49     59     50     34     15     9
Weather cov.....LIKELY S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70     20     20     20     0      0
LAL.............2      2      2      2      1      1
Temp............89     83     79     78     76     76
RH..............71     86     97     96     98     99
20 ft wind......SW 3   NE 3   SE 3   E 3    E 3    E 3
20 ft wind gust.7      7      7      7      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   700    500    500    500    400
Transport wind..S 5    E 6    SE 7   E 7    SE 8   E 7
Dispersion idx..14     3      2      3      4      3
LVORI...........3      6      8      8      9      9

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    morning and early afternoon, then becoming
                    light late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 7 mph shifting to the northeast 5 to
                    6 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 40.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........7      7      5      9      20     25
Weather cov.....                            LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     60     60
LAL.............1      1      1      1      3      3
Temp............76     78     85     89     92     92
RH..............100    99     87     76     68     65
20 ft wind......E 3    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 3
20 ft wind gust.7      7      7      8      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....500    600    2300   3900   5400   5800
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 7   E 6    E 5    NE 5   NE 6
Dispersion idx..3      6      16     24     31     42
LVORI...........9      8      4      3      3      1

$$
Forecaster...Giarratana
Requested by...Mark Proch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417216.0/TBW
.DELDT 07/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mark.proch@mymanatee.org