011
FXUS62 KTBW 040047
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
847 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A weak frontal boundary remains stretched from west to east from the
panhandle of Florida to Georgia. This boundary will remain to the
north and weaken over the next 24 hours as broad surface high
pressure south of Bermuda ridges westward across the central part of
Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge of high pressure
will be the dominant weather factor for the next couple of days
keeping a predominant southeast wind flow over the region. Abundant
moisture with PWAT values between 1.8 - 2.3 inches will persist
through the forecast period. Scattered showers and isolated storms
will be possible today and tomorrow, developing over the southeast
part of Florida and traversing northwestward each afternoon/evening
as well as some west coast sea breeze developments. Nocturnal land
breeze showers and storms can also be expected over the eastern gulf
waters during the early morning hours. Daytime highs will top out in
the low to mid 90`s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees.
Overnight lows will remain in the 70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Throughout the next 3-7 days, high pressure to the northeast of the
state will dominate the overall weather pattern and establish a
predominantly east-southeast flow across our CWA. This synoptic
setup, combined with adequate moisture aloft, will be favorable for
typical summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours throughout next few days. As we approach the
weekend, a drier air mass will move in from the Atlantic and linger
over mainly the eastern half of the state. This will likely hinder
thunderstorm development across that region during most of the
weekend and contain the majority of activity along the west coast
and some west-central counties. Moisture is expected to return come
Sunday, and this will remain in place along with the established
east-southeast flow to continue to support the development of
scattered afternoon showers and storms heading into early next week.
Temperatures will remain fairly high throughout the forecast period,
with most areas getting into the low to mid 90s and having heat
indices in the triple digits during peak heating hours in the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 812 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is now in
Hillsborough County and north. We will keep VCTS is northern TAF
sites till at least 03z. Still expecting another round of
scatter showers and storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds
will generally remain below 10 knots with VFR conditions outside
of thunderstorms.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is producing a light wind flow with winds 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will produce onshore
winds each day. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be
expected daily through the week and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A typical summertime pattern continues over the area with abundant
moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and
isolated storms expected each day through the end of the week and
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  79  93 /  40  70  30  50
FMY  77  94  79  94 /  30  40  20  50
GIF  77  95  76  94 /  40  70  30  60
SRQ  78  93  78  93 /  50  50  30  50
BKV  75  93  75  94 /  40  70  20  50
SPG  80  93  82  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard