249
FXUS62 KTBW 240010
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
810 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Convection has moved west out into the gulf this evening with fair
dry weather expected for the remainder of the night on land. On
Tuesday we`ll see a similar pattern to today with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during mainly the mid-
afternoon into early evening. However, models do depict slightly
drier air moving into the region, precipitable water between 1.4
and 1.6 inches, with best chances of convection south of the
Interstate 4 corridor and especially along the southwest coast.
Current forecast looks on track with no adjustments needed at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Convection will continue to move west out into the gulf and wind
down with VFR conditions prevailing overnight into early Tuesday
morning. Some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop during the mid
to late morning hours as daytime heating gets underway, then
scattered showers and thunderstorms after 18Z could cause some
more MVFR/local IFR conditions. Easterly winds around 5 knots
overnight will increase to 7 to 10 knots Tuesday morning and
continue through the rest of the day with the sea breeze remaining
pinned along the coast and not making it to the terminals. Gusty
and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

High pressure aloft and at the surface continues to favor an
easterly flow. Current radar shows less coverage today compared to
this same time the past couple of days. This is thanks to a bit of
mid level drier air moving in, slightly limiting shower development.
However, late afternoon showers and storms are still possible
especially along right along the west coast. The drier pattern
continues through Wednesday allowing afternoon temperatures to reach
into the mid to upper 90s and heat indices reaching into the
triple digits.

Wednesday the pattern begins to shift as the ridging aloft weakens
and an upper level low develops and sets its sights on the
peninsula. Models are beginning to agree that this upper level low
will move over the peninsula on Thursday into Friday. Deep moisture
will also advect over the state, and instability will also increase.
This coupled with mid level temperatures dropping below -9C could
lead to increased risk of some stronger storms with strong, damaging
winds and hail. Friday the winds also shift more W/SW which will
favor coastal showers in the morning moving inland in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

No major marine issues for the next couple of days. Winds will
shift from easterly to more southwesterly by mid week. Showers and
storms will also switch from late afternoon/evening to more
overnight/ early morning by the end of the week as the flow
shifts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Fire concerns remain limited as moisture levels remain above
critical and winds remain below 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  94  78  93 /  10  20  10  40
FMY  74  94  75  93 /  10  40  20  70
GIF  75  94  74  94 /   0  20   0  50
SRQ  73  94  74  92 /  20  30  20  50
BKV  70  96  71  95 /  10  10  10  40
SPG  77  92  78  91 /  10  20  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn