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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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889 FXUS62 KTBW 102353 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Southwest flow this morning resulted in some scattered showers along the coast this morning that is now starting to push inland. We will continue to see showers and storms mainly inland and throughout southwest Florida until the late afternoon hours when storms star to move towards the east coast. Southwest flow will continue for Sunday as we are expecting pretty much a repeat of today. Early next week ridging will start to come overhead that will result in a more neutral flow pattern. This means there will be little movement to the storms as they form in the afternoon and evening hours with outflows being the biggest drive of storm development. By Thursday and Friday an upper level trough looks to dip down into Florida. Models are showing this increasing out PWs around 2.5 which should bring more widespread showers and storms to the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 742 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail overnight with surface winds out of the SW at around 5 kts. SW flow continues into Sunday with wind speeds around 7-10 kts throughout the day. While VFR conditions are expected most of the day, occasional flight restrictions will be possible at times as brief periods of TSRA could occur with highest rain chances generally from 18z-00z, though VCSH may also occur Sunday morning at coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Southwest flow with winds between 5 to 10 knots will continue through the weekend. Showers and isolated storms will be possible mainly overnight and morning hours. By next work week ridging will be overhead. This will keep our winds around 5 knots for much of the week with the highest chance of showers mainly right along the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. | && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 91 79 92 / 20 60 10 60 FMY 78 93 77 94 / 10 60 20 60 GIF 77 94 77 95 / 20 80 20 70 SRQ 79 92 78 92 / 20 50 10 50 BKV 76 91 76 93 / 20 70 10 60 SPG 82 91 82 92 / 20 50 10 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby