889
FXUS62 KTBW 102353
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
753 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Southwest flow this morning resulted in some scattered showers along
the coast this morning that is now starting to push inland. We will
continue to see showers and storms mainly inland and throughout
southwest Florida until the late afternoon hours when storms star to
move towards the east coast. Southwest flow will continue for Sunday
as we are expecting pretty much a repeat of today.

Early next week ridging will start to come overhead that will
result in a more neutral flow pattern. This means there will be
little movement to the storms as they form in the afternoon and
evening hours with outflows being the biggest drive of storm
development.

By Thursday and Friday an upper level trough looks to dip down into
Florida. Models are showing this increasing out PWs around 2.5 which
should bring more widespread showers and storms to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with surface winds out of
the SW at around 5 kts. SW flow continues into Sunday with wind
speeds around 7-10 kts throughout the day. While VFR conditions
are expected most of the day, occasional flight restrictions will
be possible at times as brief periods of TSRA could occur with
highest rain chances generally from 18z-00z, though VCSH may also
occur Sunday morning at coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Southwest flow with winds between 5 to 10 knots will
continue through the weekend. Showers and isolated storms will be
possible mainly overnight and morning hours. By next work week
ridging will be overhead. This will keep our winds around 5 knots
for much of the week with the highest chance of showers mainly
right along the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Summertime humidity and convection
will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire
weather concerns. |

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  91  79  92 /  20  60  10  60
FMY  78  93  77  94 /  10  60  20  60
GIF  77  94  77  95 /  20  80  20  70
SRQ  79  92  78  92 /  20  50  10  50
BKV  76  91  76  93 /  20  70  10  60
SPG  82  91  82  92 /  20  50  10  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby