417
FXUS62 KTBW 041123
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
723 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail outside of
thunderstorms. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today from 20Z
through 01Z for all terminals and PROB30 for TS from 21-23Z. Storms
weaken after 01Z with rain-free conditions and light winds 5 knots
or less expected overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Other than a few showers offshore and some sneaky light sprinkles
in northern Manatee Co., it is just a quiet morning in paradise.
Meanwhile, Bermuda High ridging across the Peninsula should
keep light and variable winds in place during the short term. This
pattern allows the sea breeze to push pretty far inland given the
lack of resistant. In addition, PWs should be at around 2 inches
or just above that, which combined with daytime heating, the lift
from the sea breeze and the future outflow boundary collisions
should result in a fairly active afternoon and evening area-wide.
Convection is expected to start over the interior and push towards
the coast in the evening. The only caveat to this will be that
there could be some pockets of slightly drier air moving across
southern portions of the CWA that could limit how much activity
develops there.

On the other hand, the ample moisture combined with afternoon
highs in the mid 90s will bring heat indices up to 111 degrees in
multiple areas today. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in effect
through 6PM this evening. Residents and visitors should keep this
in mind if planning to be outside. Stay hydrated, stay out of the
sun and check up on the vulnerable. Friday could be another humid
and warm day, but no advisories are in effect yet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure persists across the Gulf waters keeping light wind
flow through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The
afternoon sea breeze shifts winds onshore each day, and support
scattered showers and isolated storms during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  79 /  70  40  50  20
FMY  96  79  93  78 /  50  40  50  20
GIF  96  77  95  76 /  60  40  60  10
SRQ  93  78  93  78 /  60  40  50  20
BKV  94  76  94  75 /  70  40  50  20
SPG  93  83  93  83 /  70  40  50  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...RDavis