Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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417 FXUS62 KTBW 041123 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 723 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today from 20Z through 01Z for all terminals and PROB30 for TS from 21-23Z. Storms weaken after 01Z with rain-free conditions and light winds 5 knots or less expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Other than a few showers offshore and some sneaky light sprinkles in northern Manatee Co., it is just a quiet morning in paradise. Meanwhile, Bermuda High ridging across the Peninsula should keep light and variable winds in place during the short term. This pattern allows the sea breeze to push pretty far inland given the lack of resistant. In addition, PWs should be at around 2 inches or just above that, which combined with daytime heating, the lift from the sea breeze and the future outflow boundary collisions should result in a fairly active afternoon and evening area-wide. Convection is expected to start over the interior and push towards the coast in the evening. The only caveat to this will be that there could be some pockets of slightly drier air moving across southern portions of the CWA that could limit how much activity develops there. On the other hand, the ample moisture combined with afternoon highs in the mid 90s will bring heat indices up to 111 degrees in multiple areas today. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in effect through 6PM this evening. Residents and visitors should keep this in mind if planning to be outside. Stay hydrated, stay out of the sun and check up on the vulnerable. Friday could be another humid and warm day, but no advisories are in effect yet. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure persists across the Gulf waters keeping light wind flow through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The afternoon sea breeze shifts winds onshore each day, and support scattered showers and isolated storms during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 93 79 / 70 40 50 20 FMY 96 79 93 78 / 50 40 50 20 GIF 96 77 95 76 / 60 40 60 10 SRQ 93 78 93 78 / 60 40 50 20 BKV 94 76 94 75 / 70 40 50 20 SPG 93 83 93 83 / 70 40 50 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...RDavis