530
FXUS62 KTAE 051727
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
127 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A few minor tweaks were made to account for the latest trends
based on obs this morning. Otherwise, the forecast is largely on
track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Ridging overhead with a hot and moist unstable airmass at the
surface will remain in place for the near term. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will once again be possible areawide with the
seabreeze propagating inland with general airmass thunderstorms for
our AL and GA counties. Some rainfall rates may be heavy, and
coupled with weak steering flow aloft, could create some localized
nuisance flooding. This afternoon will also feature another heat
advisory for the entire CWA as heat indices ranging from 108-111 are
possible, particularly for our FL and SE AL counties. Some of our GA
counties are borderline (around 107), though this has been a
prolonged period of heat and with it being a holiday weekend,
opted to be cautious.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A summer pattern will continue across the area with an upper level
ridge dominating. Convection will be driven by mesoscale boundaries
such as the sea breeze and weak upper level vort maxes. Normally,
with an upper ridge in place, convective chances would be below
average. However, a very moist airmass is also in place with
precipitable water values well above 2 inches and above the 90th
percentile even for this time of year. This very moist airmass is
expected to offset the ridging and allow for at least average to
above average rain chances through the weekend. In addition, a weak
surface boundary may dip into the area this weekend, further
enhancing rain chances across southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia. High temperatures will generally range from the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Despite the
increased rain chances, peak heat index values will still be quite
high, particularly on Saturday, thanks to high dewpoints across the
area. Additional heat advisories are possible through the weekend
with the hottest conditions across the Florida counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Not much change in the pattern is expected through mid-week with
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms and precipitable water
values around 2 inches or higher. Temperatures during the day
will generally run in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows
in the middle 70s. Heat indices each afternoon will continue to
run near Heat Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be impacting nearly all
terminals through the remainder of the afternoon and evening
hours. These showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to
bring brief MVFR to LIFR conditions to all terminals today if they
move over or near a terminal. VFR conditions will remain
throughout the day outside of shower and thunderstorm activity,
and is expected to continue through the overnight and morning
hours on Saturday. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected Saturday afternoon, but is outside this TAF cycles time
window to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly
during the overnight and morning hours. Winds will generally be out
of the south to southwest with a slight uptick in winds anticipated
early next week. Hurricane Beryl will bring a long period swell that
will arrive this evening and continue through the weekend before
subsiding early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A moist airmass will remain over the area with thunderstorms
expected each day with gusty and erratic winds within and near these
storms. The only main concern at this time is low dispersions
possible across SW GA and the FL Big Bend today. Otherwise, there
are no fire concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for at
least the next few days with a moist summer environment in place.
While widespread heavy rainfall is not currently expected, localized
pockets of heavy rain in a short period of time could produced
localized flash flooding, especially in urban and/or poor drainage
areas and in areas that have already seen heavy rain during the past
few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  95  77  93 /  40  70  30  70
Panama City   79  91  79  91 /  30  70  30  70
Dothan        76  94  76  93 /  50  70  30  70
Albany        76  94  76  92 /  40  70  30  70
Valdosta      76  95  76  94 /  40  70  30  70
Cross City    76  94  76  92 /  30  70  30  70
Apalachicola  80  89  80  89 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...DVD