292
FXUS62 KTAE 190116
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
916 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

No updates to the forecast appear necessary at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A front is expected to continue to work its way into the southeast;
however, it may stall or hover just to the north of our service
area. Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms remain the
highlight of the forecast with heavy down pours and gusty winds
being the main threat. Given PWATs remain high, localized nuisance
or flash flooding will be possible. Highs are expected to be in the
low 90s, which should be realized given the increased clouds and
rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Deep-layer flow from the south and southwest and abundant
moisture will continue to fuel well above normal rain chances
Friday night into Saturday night. With the local region situated
between a central US trough and western Atlantic ridge, PWATs well
over 2 inches are forecast to stream into the region. This will
bring high rainfall rates to the area in any storms through the
period. While storms should have fairly quick motions through the
weekend, which will prevent any widespread flooding risks, the
high rainfall rates and potential for some training of storms
could produce very localized areas of flooding. Additionally, any
slow moving storm mergers could drop a quick 3 to 4 inches of
rain.

Shower activity will continue to follow a typical summertime
pattern with activity originating over the water and coastal zones
in the pre-dawn and morning hours before activity quickly
transitions inland in the late morning to afternoon hours.
Additional redevelopment over our marine zones will potentially
begin in the late evening hours with activity peaking over
marine/coastal zones again the next morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The pattern won`t vary much at all on Sunday and into much of next
week, but how long rain chances remain above normal largely
depends on how quick the the ridge across the western Atlantic
builds westward and how fast the trough across the central US
weakens/lifts north. Ensemble guidance still keeps much of the
area under anomalously high PWATS through next Wednesday, but if
the ridge across western Atlantic can build further west, it`s
possible we could see intrusions of drier mid/upper level air
rotating through the region around the ridge.

Rain chances remain above normal through next week but have begun
to trend them down slightly by the middle of next week given
potential uncertainty for a more normal summer time pattern
developing. Temperatures will largely remain around normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

TSRA should dissipate by 02Z and while impacts cannot be ruled out
at DHN and ECP, the probability is low. Attention turns to timing
and extent of additional TSRA on Monday. Similar to previous days,
continued low to mid-level southwest flow will lead to TSRA INVOF
the ECP and TLH terminals during the morning, then at ABY and VLD
during the afternoon. There could be some brief MVFR restrictions,
especially at ECP and TLH. Most of the CAMs keep activity outside
of DHN from now, were the main concern attm is a brief period of
MVFR vsbys around 11Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Light southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 to 2
feet will prevail through the upcoming weekend and through much
of next week. The main boating hazards will be widespread showers
and storms, especially in the pre-dawn and morning hours before
activity moves inland for the afternoon and evening hours.
Suddenly higher winds, frequent lightning, waterspouts, and
increased seas are possible in the vicinity of any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Morning and afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once again on
tap for today and tomorrow. Other than erratic directional wind
changes around thunderstorms, there are currently no fire weather
concerns. Fair to good dispersions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Rain chances remain will remain well above normal through the next
5 to 7 days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with
the higher amounts closer to the coast, should not cause any
riverine issues. Main flooding concerns revolve around high
rainfall rates and very localized flooding is possible in any
areas where slow moving and/or training storms affect a location.
In these spots a quick 2 to 4 inches of rainfall within an hour or
two is possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  91  75  92 /  20  70  30  80
Panama City   79  89  78  89 /  50  80  60  80
Dothan        73  90  72  88 /  30  80  50  80
Albany        74  92  73  90 /  20  70  40  70
Valdosta      75  94  74  94 /  40  60  30  70
Cross City    75  92  75  93 /  20  70  30  80
Apalachicola  79  88  80  89 /  40  80  50  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs